Breakthroughs in helium purification technology reshape the global supply chain

II. Restructuring of the Global Helium Purification Landscape 1. United States: From Absolute Monopoly to Relative Advantage The U.S. remains the world’s top helium producer, holding 35% of global reserves and accounting for 48% of global output; the Federal Helium Reserve holds 71% of global helium inventory. Air Products (AP) employs cryogenic distillation technology capable of purifying helium from natural gas containing 0.66–8.2% helium to ultra-high purity (99.9999%). However, declining helium concentrations in shale gas—due to intensified extraction—will likely reduce U.S. helium production by 12% year-on-year in 2025. Although the U.S. is investing in lunar helium-3 development (e.g., Interlune), such efforts cannot offset the near-term decline in conventional production. 2. China: From Catching Up to Leading By 2025, China’s annual helium production capacity will reach 17.65 million cubic meters, covering all major feedstock sources: natural gas (Fengsheng Technology, Shanxi), LNG tail-gas recovery (Senbo Technology, Zhuhai), and coalbed methane (Yaojie Coal & Electricity). Independently developed cryogenic adsorption and distillation technologies have raised domestic component localization rates from 30% to 80%; complete helium purification systems have already been exported to Russia and Africa. Production bases in Ordos and Shaanxi alone can meet 45% of China’s high-end helium demand. 3. Other Countries: Divergence and Catch-Up 1. Qatar: Its North Field contains 1.8% helium; leveraging Air Liquide’s French technology, it produces 30 million cubic meters annually—but critical equipment remains imported from the U.S. 2. Russia: The Amur Gas Field contains 0.15–0.6% helium; a Sino-Russian joint project scheduled for commissioning in 2026 will yield 120 million cubic meters annually. However, in August, Ukrainian airstrikes hit Russia’s sole helium plant dedicated to rocket applications, exposing acute supply-chain fragility. 3. Iran: A pilot project launching in 2025 targets an annual output of 22 tons using Russian technology, achieving only 99.9% purity—insufficient for high-end markets. III. In-Depth Analysis of Application Domains 1. Healthcare: The Lifeline of Life-Sustaining Systems Liquid helium maintains MRI superconducting magnets at −269°C; each MRI scanner consumes ~12,000 liters annually. In 2024, China’s medical helium consumption reached 3.2 million cubic meters—85% used for MRI—with annual growth of 17.4%. CAS-developed gadolinium-based materials may replace up to 70% of liquid helium, potentially reshaping medical helium demand long-term. 2. Semiconductor Manufacturing: Enabling Precision Fabrication Photolithography requires ultra-pure helium (99.9999%) for cooling; each 12-inch wafer consumes ~30 liters. China’s semiconductor helium use surged from 3 million cubic meters in 2020 to 8.9 million in 2024—14% of global demand. Senbo Technology’s purification equipment helped Tsinghua University’s lab achieve 98% yield on 14-nm chips, directly supporting domestic photolithography tool R&D. 3. Aerospace: The Foundation of Space Exploration Each Long March rocket consumes 5,000 cubic meters of helium; military helium use reached 2.8 million cubic meters in 2024. Liquid helium provides cryogenic environments for satellite attitude control systems; high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors employ helium-based cooling cycles, boosting nuclear power efficiency by 40% and saving ¥200 million per unit annually. 4. Emerging Fields: The Pivot for Quantum Computing and Fusion Energy Quantum computers require −273°C operating temperatures: IBM’s 433-qubit processor consumes 3,000 cubic meters of liquid helium annually. China’s “Jiuzhang-3” quantum processor doubles its predecessor’s liquid helium usage—accelerating R&D into helium-free superconductors. HL-2M fusion experimental devices consume 500 cubic meters per experiment; commercialization by 2035 could drive annual helium demand to 10 million cubic meters.

Risk assessment and response analysis of China’s supply-demand imbalance in high-end helium

At the levels of loss and reserve management, even industry-leading liquid helium storage and transport equipment suffer daily natural evaporation losses of 1–2%; such losses escalate further during long-term storage or transit. Currently, China’s total liquid helium storage and transport infrastructure capacity covers only routine logistics fluctuations—not extreme, protracted scenarios such as Qatar’s production collapse or Russia’s export restrictions. Moreover, liquid helium reserve resources suffer from low release efficiency: storage, filling, and transfer require specialized equipment and technical expertise. A single batch-filling operation—including pretreatment and gas-purge procedures—takes over 10 hours. Under severe shortage conditions, reserve stocks cannot be rapidly reallocated to end users, rendering them ineffective at quickly alleviating large-scale supply shortfalls. II. Procurement Space and Cost Implications Following Russia’s Export Restrictions Once Russia’s export controls take full effect, China’s core emergency procurement channel will be severed. Globally available surplus helium resources are virtually exhausted; incremental procurement space is extremely limited. Global helium production and trade quotas are highly concentrated among the ‘Big Four’ international suppliers; mainstream producing countries have fully committed their capacities under long-term contracts—leaving no idle spot capacity for incremental purchases. A granular review of the supply landscape reveals: • Qatar—the traditional core helium exporter to Asia-Pacific—has suffered physical damage to its primary production facilities; repairs will take 3–5 years, ruling out near-term resumption. All existing long-term contracts are voided; spot supply has vanished entirely. Moreover, constrained by U.S. technology licensing, Qatar lacks alternative production capacity. • Secondary suppliers—including Algeria and Australia—have limited export volumes; their capacities are long-term locked into Western and Southeast Asian markets, leaving no surplus to support incremental Chinese procurement. Spot purchases from these sources carry disproportionately high costs. • U.S. domestic production prioritizes domestic and allied markets, with zero incremental allocation quotas for external buyers. Its strategic reserve has been fully depleted—offering no emergency buffer. • Russia has cut off all helium exports to the West while maintaining stable, targeted supply to China. Currently, the sole remaining source offering scalable, low-cost, low-risk incremental supply is the overland Sino-Russian helium corridor—leveraging Russia’s expanded production capacity, dedicated China quotas, and secure land-based transportation infrastructure—to continuously fill the global supply gap. Meanwhile, South Africa’s Virginia Natural Gas Project has emerged as a globally scarce new variable for incremental supply. Operated by Tetra4, a subsidiary of ASP Isotopes (ASPI), the project sits in a geopolitically neutral zone—shielding it from Middle East conflict risks and Western sanctions. Its helium resource endowment far exceeds traditional fields: average helium concentration reaches 3%, with localized blocks hitting 12%—8–30 times higher than Qatar’s or the U.S.’s sources—conferring inherent cost and scale advantages. The project’s Phase I completed core drilling ahead of schedule in March 2026; new wells produce 16× more gas than early oil wells. Full production is expected in Q3 2026, yielding 58,000 cubic feet of liquid helium per day—60% of which is already secured under long-term contracts. Phase II—a 44-month construction program—will elevate daily output to a globally significant scale. It benefits from $790 million in policy-backed financing from the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and Standard Bank of South Africa. This is the only large-scale, near-term helium capacity addition globally—and the pivotal increment poised to break the current oligopolistic supply deadlock. However, challenges—including infrastructure delays, complex inland logistics, historical project slippage, and single-site concentration risk—mean the project cannot reverse the global tight-balance situation in the short term.

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