"Most Accurate Over the Past Two Years": JPMorgan's Trading Desk Turns Bullish

JPMorgan’s Institutional Market Intelligence Desk—renowned for its uncanny accuracy in pinpointing market turning points over the past two years—has once again issued a significant signal: shifting from "tactically cautious/neutral" to "tactically bullish." This shift occurs just ahead of a critical window packed with密集 macro- and micro-level data releases, drawing widespread market attention. The latest report identifies five key pillars underpinning this stance change: (1) macro fundamentals exceeding expectations; (2) sustained consumer resilience; (3) relatively low earnings expectations; (4) stabilizing bond yields; and (5) improving technical indicators. Concurrently, the desk has adjusted its prior paired trade strategy—long Nasdaq-100 (NDX), short Russell 2000 (RTY)—and now favors expressing its view more heavily via derivatives. Notably, the desk’s most recent stance adjustment occurred on August 31, when it shifted from bullish to "tactically cautious/neutral." Since then, the S&P 500 has remained virtually flat, while its recommended long-NDX/short-RTY trade gained over 8% cumulatively—and U.S. equities broadly outperformed other major markets. This renewed turn to bullishness signals the team’s view that the near-term risk-reward profile has meaningfully improved. Backed by proven forecasting accuracy, the "turn bullish" signal carries substantial weight. Over the past two years, JPMorgan’s Institutional Market Intelligence Desk has consistently validated its calls at multiple pivotal junctures—earning high credibility among institutional investors. Its most recent stance shift, on August 31, downgraded the outlook from bullish to "tactically cautious/neutral," citing Federal Reserve policy uncertainty, crowded positioning, widening credit spreads, seasonal headwinds, and momentum factor pullbacks. At that time, the team recommended concentrating exposure in the long-NDX/short-RTY paired trade. The outcome confirmed this call: since the adjustment, the SPX has barely moved, while the long-NDX/short-RTY trade rose over 8% cumulatively—and U.S. equities continued to outperform other major markets. It is precisely this track record that lends heightened credibility to the current "turn bullish" signal. Five Key Rationales Supporting the Bullish Turn The desk systematically outlines five core justifications for its shift to a bullish stance in its latest report: First, macro fundamentals are exceeding expectations. The latest flash PMI data indicate stronger-than-expected economic growth—supporting employment, consumption, and corporate earnings. The team emphasizes that S&P 500 EPS growth correlates more closely with nominal GDP growth than real GDP; given current economic conditions, market earnings expectations may be overly conservative. Second, consumer resilience remains unexpectedly robust. Although concerns persist about consumers’ ability to withstand inflation and elevated interest rates, actual consumption data continue to outperform expectations—challenging the "K-shaped recovery" hypothesis. Meanwhile, improvements in the labor market are further bolstering consumer spending. Third, earnings expectations offer room for upward revision. Q2 2026 EPS growth stands at a lofty 52%; the market currently forecasts ~29% for Q3. The team believes this forecast may be too low—positive revenue and EPS growth are expected across all 11 S&P 500 sectors.

[U.S. Pre-Market] U.S. and European Markets Slide Broadly; Dow Futures Drop Over 300 Points; Watch March U.S. Existing Home Sales Data

● According to a Reuters survey of economists, South Korea’s economy is projected to contract at its steepest pace since 2008 in Q1, as the coronavirus crisis disrupts business activity and global demand. The median forecast from 10 economists surveyed by Reuters predicts a 1.5% quarter-on-quarter contraction in seasonally adjusted GDP—the worst decline since Q4 2008, when GDP shrank 3.3%. ● S&P Global reported on Monday that unemployment in the Asia-Pacific region could double due to the pandemic, with some jobs unlikely to return for an extended period. Shaun Roache, S&P Global’s Chief Asia-Pacific Economist, stated in the report: “Unemployment in the Asia-Pacific region could rise by more than three percentage points—roughly double the average increase seen during recessions.” ● State Street Global Advisors said on Tuesday that the crude oil inventory crisis is unlikely to dissipate for several months, implying continued volatility in spot and futures prices—and persistently low oil prices throughout the year. Overnight, the May U.S. crude oil futures contract plunged into negative territory, briefly hitting -$40 per barrel; on Tuesday, it rebounded nearly $39 but still traded at only $1.76 per barrel. Insufficient storage capacity and collapsing fuel demand have driven prices to astonishing lows. Daniel Gerard, Senior Multi-Asset Strategist at State Street Global Advisors, noted in his commentary that steep contango—driven by plummeting demand—is adding further pressure on those seeking to offload excess inventory. OPEC+ negotiations and the subsequent agreement underscore how difficult it has become for countries to reach consensus on production cuts amid rapidly falling oil prices. ● Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Survey: A strengthening U.S. dollar, declining equity market volatility, and weak jewelry demand from India and China remain headwinds for gold. ● Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said on Tuesday that he expects Australia’s GDP to contract by 10% in the first half of the year—the largest drop since the 1930s—driven by pandemic-related restrictions on economic activity. Most of this contraction will occur in Q2. He also projects unemployment to rise to around 10% by June, up from 5.2% in March, and total working hours to fall by approximately 20%. ● In the latest wave of asset purchases, central banks have expanded their balance sheets to record levels—sparking questions about how far quantitative expansion can go, and whether these assets can ever be sold back into the market. Now, the pandemic has placed unprecedented strain on government budgets, while firms across industries face existential threats—forcing central banks to step in again with financial support. Key Events to Watch: ● 10:00 p.m. ET: U.S. March Existing Home Sales (Annualized, Units)

JP Morgan Maintains Chemours at Neutral, Lowers Price Target to $14

1 day ago

JP Morgan maintains a Neutral rating on Chemours Co., lowering its price target to $14 from $15. The adjustment implies a 9.8% upside from the November 6 closing price.

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