J.P. Morgan: The Global Investment Landscape Under the New World Order—Outlooks on Global Macro, AI-Driven Investing, Inflation, Interest Rates, and Commodities

· In dollar terms, the top 1% holds $55.3 trillion in assets—nearly equal to the $55.8 trillion total held by the bottom 90% of the U.S. population. · The top 10% controls approximately 87% of corporate equity and mutual fund shares. Key data: U.S. household net worth surged by $13 trillion in just one quarter—the second quarter of 2026—and has grown by nearly $20 trillion over the past year. 2.3 Retail Investing and the Erosion of the 'Buffer' · Retail trading volume has more than doubled since 2019. · Retail investment has grown by over 50% since 2024. · According to the J.P. Morgan Chase Institute, households are increasingly funding consumption by drawing down balances in their investment accounts. · The number of Chase checking accounts receiving transfers from investment accounts is now nearly double the 2019 level. Joyce warns: 'You’re seeing a buffer—but we’re depleting that buffer.' 2.4 The Greatest Risk in AI Investment Joyce argues that the trigger for an AI-related correction may not stem from disappointment in AI technology itself, but rather from: · A shift in capital efficiency (similar to the experience during the dot-com bubble) · A revaluation of developed-market equities and digital companies, akin to the post–Global Financial Crisis period PART.03 Financial Conditions: How Capital Markets 'Feed' AI Innovation 3.1 Equity Markets · 40% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization is now linked to AI. · The five largest tech giants—Alphabet/Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle—account for 53% of the index’s total capital expenditures for the year. · J.P. Morgan’s equity strategy team has consistently raised earnings-per-share (EPS) forecasts: for 2026, EPS growth was revised up to 35% ($365), and for 2027, to $420 (+15%). · Based on these revisions, the firm raised its summer S&P 500 target price from 7,080 to 8,000 points. 3.2 Debt Markets AI-related firms may raise exceptionally large amounts of financing over the next five years: · Investment-grade / high-rated corporate bond markets: potentially over $2 trillion (even up to $2.1 trillion) · Leveraged finance markets: an additional ~$35 billion · AI now accounts for the largest share (15%) of the investment-grade debt market—surpassing the long-standing largest U.S. financial sector · In July 2026, tech-related issuance accounted for a record 34% of that month’s total debt offerings 3.3 ETFs and Derivatives: Amplifiers of Leverage · Assets in leveraged ETFs began surging in Q2 2026, concentrated in tech and AI sectors. · When these sectors decline, leveraged ETFs amplify losses and increase volatility. · Options and total return swaps are also used to gain targeted exposure to AI-linked stocks—further increasing leverage. · The combination of ETF fund flows, trading activity, and hedging using index futures and other derivatives significantly raises the demand for more sophisticated expertise and trading infrastructure. PART.04 Inflation and Interest Rates: A High-Rate Regime in an Era of Fiscal Dominance

Behavior of international investment banks such as J.P. Morgan: Do you think they still have any ethical底线 (bottom line)?

Major international investment banks—including J.P. Morgan—have sharply downgraded their stock ratings and target prices for over twenty Chinese internet companies, declaring them 'uninvestable in the near term.' Not a single major internet firm was spared. Alibaba’s target price was slashed from $180 to $65—a 64% cut. Tencent’s target price was slashed by 54%, from HK$570 to HK$265. Bilibili’s target price was cut from $80 to $15—a staggering 81% reduction. Meituan’s target price plunged from HK$295 to HK$90—nearly a 70% drop. Pinduoduo’s target price collapsed from $150 to $23—a roughly 80% decline. Overnight, the companies remain the same; the markets remain the same—yet target prices can be slashed by over 80%. Where is the integrity of research? Even Sichuan opera face-changing cannot match this speed of reversal. This is clearly deliberate suppression—kicking someone when they’re down. Can such rating reports still claim credibility or public trust?

JP Morgan maintains Eastman Chemical at Neutral, lowers price target to $65 from $66

2 days ago

JP Morgan reiterated a Neutral rating on Eastman Chemical while lowering its price target to $65 from $66. This adjustment suggests a potential downside of 2.3% relative to recent closing prices.

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