Deng Zhenghong Energy Soft Power: Multiple Factors Support Crude Oil Market Sentiment; Investors Focus on U.S. Presidential Election and Tropical Storm

Deng Zhenghong Soft Power stated that the OPEC+ decision to postpone production increases continues to bolster oil soft power activity. A weakening U.S. dollar and tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico also support upward momentum in oil soft power. Investors are closely monitoring the ongoing U.S. presidential election. On Tuesday (November 5), international oil prices edged higher. At settlement, NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for December 2024 rose $0.52 per barrel to $71.99, up 0.73%, with a trading range of $71.29–$72.67. ICE Brent crude oil futures for January 2025 rose $0.45 per barrel to $75.53, up 0.60%, with a trading range of $74.90–$76.24. The tightly contested U.S. presidential election has left global markets on high alert, as the fast-paced campaign between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remains undecided. Tamas Varga, analyst at consultancy PVM, said: “The result may not be known for days—or even weeks—and it is highly likely to face challenges and disputes.” Nevertheless, he believes the OPEC+ postponement of output hikes continues to drive oil prices upward, while brewing Middle East tensions and a weak dollar provide further support. Polls show Donald Trump and Kamala Harris remain neck-and-neck, adding further uncertainty to markets. The outcome could reshape U.S. trade, diplomacy, security, and climate policies—and potentially exert profound influence on commodity markets. A second Trump administration may welcome the U.S. shale oil industry more warmly and approach renewable energy with greater skepticism—by relaxing environmental regulations and expanding offshore and federal land leasing opportunities. By contrast, Harris could maintain the Biden administration’s emissions-reduction strategy while managing oil supply. Deng Zhenghong Soft Power believes such an outcome could shift foreign policy—potentially intensifying sanctions against Iran while easing restrictions on Russian oil flows. Amrita Sen, Head of Research at Rystad Energy, noted: “The current U.S. administration has not enforced any sanctions—in fact, it encourages purchases of Iranian oil to suppress prices. Enforcing sanctions solely against Iran would be sufficient to remove roughly one million barrels per day from the market.” Tropical storms pose risks to Gulf of Mexico production. Tropical Storm Rafael threatens production disruptions at U.S. offshore oil and gas platforms. Chevron has shut down its Gulf of Mexico production facilities, while Shell is evacuating some non-essential personnel locally. Energy traders are also closely watching Tropical Storm Rafael. According to relevant data, the storm is expected to intensify into a hurricane later on Tuesday. Alex Hodes, Head of Energy Market Strategy at StoneX, wrote in Tuesday’s energy newsletter: “Rafael’s current projected track is for landfall near New Orleans.”

Hengjia Daily | October 8, 2026 (Thursday)

According to IT Home’s report on October 7, a Nobel laureate in Economics recently estimated that AI will replace only about 5% of jobs over the next decade. This view—endorsed by the laureate—suggests AI will not massively displace human workers. It stands in contrast to recent waves of layoffs by tech firms citing AI as justification, highlighting that AI’s impact on labor markets is more likely “structural reallocation” rather than “aggregate replacement.” Still, short-term job displacement and skill mismatches will remain concentrated in standardized roles such as customer service and basic programming, continuously raising demand for upskilling among individuals and enterprises. (Source: IT Home) 10. Ellison Family Expected to Contribute $17 Billion to Warner Bros. Acquisition According to Sina Finance’s 7×24 news updates and publicly filed documents, the Ellison family is expected to contribute approximately $17 billion toward the acquisition of Warner Bros. Previously, Paramount Global announced completion of its roughly $110 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, forming a super-media conglomerate spanning Hollywood and journalism. The new entity, branded “Skydance,” will house Paramount and Warner Bros. film and television studios, streaming services Paramount+ and HBO Max, and news divisions CNN and CBS. David Ellison—the son of Oracle founder Larry Ellison—will serve as Chairman and CEO. The family’s deep financial involvement underscores the strategic importance of this deal to the Ellison ecosystem and reflects the media industry’s integration logic in the streaming era: “stronger players merging, combining content and platform into one unified entity.” (Source: Sina Finance / Public Filings) 11. U.S. May Strike Iran Before Midterm Elections; Brent Crude Surpasses $101 per Barrel Reports indicate the White House has requested the Pentagon draft plans for military action against Iran, possibly timed before the U.S. midterm elections. According to The Atlantic, citing two government officials, the scale, targets, and final decision on implementation remain under discussion. If limited strikes occur, broader operations may follow after the midterms conclude. As a result, Sina Finance’s 7×24 data shows Brent crude surged past $101 per barrel during Asian trading hours on October 8—a 0.86% intraday gain—while WTI crude climbed above $89 to $89.17 per barrel. Compounding this, Tropical Storm Isaias disrupted part of Gulf of Mexico crude output (Shell evacuated personnel and suspended operations; Chevron maintained normal production at five facilities). Geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions jointly pushed oil prices higher, amplifying global inflationary pressures and shipping costs. (Source: Sina Finance / The Atlantic) 12. Iran Claims It Will Close “Illegal Shipping Lanes” in Strait of Hormuz; U.S. Calls Claim False According to Iranian media reports, Brigadier General Ali Shamkhani, Senior Advisor to the Commander-in-Chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), stated on October 7 that several “illegal shipping lanes” within the Strait of Hormuz would soon be closed. He asserted the strait is effectively closed and fully controlled by Iran’s armed forces—unless Iran’s “legitimate” demands are met. The U.S. Central Command responded on October 7, calling the claim false. It affirmed that maritime traffic through the strait remains unimpeded, with commercial cargo—including approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil daily—continuing to flow smoothly. The U.S. and its regional partners maintain control over the waterway. (Source: Iranian Media / U.S. Central Command)

Shell, Chevron cut Gulf of Mexico output as Tropical Storm Isaias approaches

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Shell and Chevron are curtailing offshore Gulf of Mexico operations and evacuating personnel as Tropical Storm Isaias approaches, with specific assets like Mars and Olympus being shut in ahead of the expected hurricane landfall.

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