Trump announced that the U.S. would take control of Venezuela and allow American oil giants to enter the country—what does this mean? What crises will Venezuela face next?

Arresting Maduro feels great in the moment—but what happens after the post-adrenaline 'wise man' phase? Even users on Zhihu (China’s Quora) can see the problem, yet it seems Trump himself never gave it a thought: 'Who cares—let’s just enjoy the thrill first!' Honestly, I have no idea what script this is from; debt restructuring certainly doesn’t work this way. 1. Venezuela isn’t like Afghanistan—separated by oceans and mountains. Its 28 million desperately poor people live right on America’s doorstep. Will the U.S. take responsibility for their survival? If not, a humanitarian crisis could erupt overnight—and refugees will paddle across in dinghies. How many illegal immigrants can you realistically stop? If yes, can today’s U.S.—a nation whose domestic stability seems sustained only by sacrificing its own citizens—possibly manage Venezuela? 2. Seizing oil and letting U.S. oil giants move in. Can oil be pumped up just by tapping on a computer or playing with digital numbers? The U.S. can’t even manufacture military aircraft anymore—does it really possess the capacity to build oil extraction equipment? It’ll still need to outsource to ‘Dongda’ (a colloquial term for China). But Dongda has already invested heavily in Venezuela’s petroleum industry—will the U.S. dare touch that? If it doesn’t, then what exactly was all that effort for? If it does, it’ll lose its outsourcing partners. Surely it won’t turn to ‘Jingzi’ (a slang term for Japan)—and if it does, Jingzi will surely squeeze it dry.

An Eastern economics interpretation of Venezuela

‘The oil underground? Of course, it belongs to Venezuela. But the oil brought to the surface… half of it belongs to them.’ Andrés mentally noted down this figure. Later, he learned that in economics this is called ‘unequal exchange’—Venezuela sacrifices irreplaceable natural resources and the blood and sweat of its lowest-tier laborers, receiving in return technology, equipment, and consumer goods whose value can never match what it gives up. Even more serious was another reality. The Maracaibo oilfields produce nearly one million barrels of crude oil daily—yet villages surrounding the fields remain without electricity. Caracas’s affluent neighborhoods blaze with neon lights, while hillside shantytowns less than ten kilometers away rely on candles for illumination. ‘Why?’ he asked again. This time, no one answered. Andrés began to grasp a harsh truth: oil wealth is not a river—it is a funnel. Money surges up from underground, flows into the pockets of a few, and then—via imports of luxury goods and overseas investments—flows back to the United States, back to Europe, back to places already wealthy. Venezuela’s local farmers, workers, and small traders—the people who actually labor on the land—saw no increase in purchasing power due to oil. On the contrary, oil drove up prices and destroyed domestic agriculture and handicraft industries. ‘We produce nothing—we merely lie atop oil wells and spend money,’ Andrés wrote in his diary. ‘When one day the wells run dry—or oil prices crash—what will we use to buy food? What will sustain this nation?’ It was a night in the late 1950s. Andrés closed his diary and gazed out the window at Caracas’s sea of lights, gripped by an ominous premonition. He knew this black river would inevitably run dry. Chapter Two: The Price of Illusion In 1973, the Yom Kippur War broke out. Arab nations jointly imposed an oil embargo on the United States. Global oil prices surged from $3 to $12 per barrel. Venezuela’s oil revenue tripled within a single year. Caracas plunged into an unprecedented frenzy. By then, Andrés—over fifty—was a senior economist at Venezuela’s Central Bank. Each day, seated in his office, he watched national fiscal revenue figures climb relentlessly on reports—and his frown deepened. A young colleague burst excitedly into his office: ‘Mr. Andrés! Did you see? This year’s oil revenue will reach ten billion dollars! The government is debating an ambitious plan—to build new highways, subways, hospitals, schools…’ ‘Where does this money come from?’ Andrés interrupted. ‘Naturally—from oil revenue!’ ‘Is oil revenue one-time, or sustainable?’ The young colleague froze. Andrés rose and walked to the Venezuelan map hanging on the wall. He traced his finger across Lake Maracaibo: ‘This oil formed hundreds of millions of years ago through geological processes. It wasn’t produced by us—it was a gift from nature. It’s like a windfall—and windfalls most easily cloud judgment.’ ‘In any healthy economy, the core engine isn’t selling natural resources for cash, but rather the circulation of purchasing power among the nation’s own people,’ Andrés turned back, his gaze unusually stern. ‘Go visit the fishing villages around Maracaibo. The oilfields sit right at their doorstep—yet fishermen still row wooden boats and fish using the most primitive methods. Where is their purchasing power? Where do they get the money for daily meals and clothing?’

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