Russia's March oil exports plummeted by 70%; foreign exchange revenue becomes unsustainable.

According to data from financial research firm Refinitiv, during the week of February 27 to March 5 this year, crude oil tankers departing Russian ports shipped only about 1 million barrels per day. This represents a staggering 60–70% decline compared with the January average of 3–4 million barrels per day. Tankers carrying crude oil from Russia to the European Union now transport only about 500,000 barrels per day—down 70–80% from January levels. It is not only Europe that has sharply reduced its purchases of Russian energy: Japan and China have also cut back on imports of Russian crude oil. Tankers bound for Japan and for China—which has not joined the sanctions—have visibly decreased in number. The sharp global decline in demand for Russian energy is already reflected in Russian energy prices. In March, Urals crude oil—the benchmark Russian export grade—traded at a discount of 30–50% relative to North Sea Brent crude. One reason national buyers have paused purchases of Russian crude is concern over safety. Many shipping companies have begun refusing to call at Russian ports. Moreover, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies, marine insurance has been significantly affected: all insurers have substantially raised insurance premiums for tankers departing from Russia. Most critically, virtually all international banks have suspended issuing letters of credit—essential instruments guaranteeing payment settlement in international trade—to sanctioned Russian banks. Without letters of credit, foreign trade transactions become impossible. Beyond economic sanctions and risk assessments, commercial ethics are also playing a role. After British oil major Shell faced criticism for purchasing Russian crude at discounted prices, it swiftly announced it would halt such purchases. Patrick Pouyanne, CEO of France’s TotalEnergies, announced on March 7 that the company would immediately stop procuring Russian crude oil. Historical data shows that in Russia’s merchandise export ledger for January–September 2021, petroleum and petroleum products accounted for nearly 40%.

Refined product price gains far exceed those of crude oil: Goldman Sachs more than doubles its U.S. diesel profit outlook.

A recent report from Goldman Sachs notes that unplanned global refinery shutdowns are running 60% above seasonal norms. Against a backdrop of constrained refining capacity and persistently declining refined product inventories, Goldman Sachs has raised its 2027 U.S. diesel crack spread forecast from $27 per barrel to $63 per barrel—and its EU diesel crack spread forecast from $19 to $49 per barrel—more than doubling both prior estimates. The diesel crack spread—a key indicator of refiners’ profit margins after processing crude oil—has surged sharply, signaling Goldman Sachs’ expectation that the diesel market will remain tight going forward. Meanwhile, Russia has extended its diesel export ban through September; Brazil’s agricultural planting season is approaching; and heating demand across the Northern Hemisphere is set to rise with winter. Supply-side constraints combined with seasonally strengthening demand heighten the risk of further tightening in the global diesel market. In terms of price performance, refined product gains have clearly outpaced those of crude oil. Brent crude has risen nearly 50% year-to-date, while European diesel futures have surged by over 100% in the same period—making diesel the core driver of this round of energy market rallies. Refinery outages compounded by geopolitical conflict delay refined product supply recovery Goldman Sachs points out that unplanned global refinery shutdowns currently stand 60% above seasonal norms. Even as some demand softens, refined product inventories continue to fall—indicating that the supply shortfall remains unaddressed. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have further strained refining capacity: although Persian Gulf crude oil exports have rebounded to 70–80% of pre-war levels, refined product shipments have recovered to only 40% of pre-war volumes. This means that recovery in crude oil supply does not automatically translate into parallel recovery in the refined products market. Refinery damage and transportation disruptions are extending the impact of geopolitical conflict beyond the crude oil market and deeper into the refined products market. Goldman Sachs has repeatedly warned of this risk: in March, it noted that U.S.–Iran tensions could affect the refined products market more severely than crude oil itself; earlier this month, the bank emphasized how damage to Russian energy infrastructure is dragging on market supply.

TotalEnergies board backs CEO Pouyanne's mandate renewal

4 days ago

TotalEnergies' board unanimously renewed Chairman and CEO Patrick Pouyanne's mandate, reaffirming its strategy focused on Oil & Gas and Integrated Power businesses ahead of an investor update.

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