Methanol Fundamental Research and Analysis Report

Methanol Fundamental Research and Analysis Report October 4, 2026 · Weekly · Data Key Points of This Issue Methanol futures closed at 3,384 RMB/ton, with a premium basis. The medium- to long-term price trend, as reflected by the weekly K-line’s 10-period moving average (MA10), remains range-bound; the weekly K-line structure for this period is also range-bound. Recent price movement, per the daily K-line MA10, is likewise range-bound; the daily K-line pattern for this period is range-bound. Institutional positions show net longs of 154,651 contracts—a reduction from 177,803 contracts. The current dominant market driver is cost pass-through, which has a long cycle and neutral impact. Supply-demand fundamentals are relatively loose. Real GDP year-on-year cumulative growth: 4.7%, at the 40th percentile; year-on-year growth: 4.7%; quarter-on-quarter change: -0.3%. Year-on-year growth in outstanding social financing scale: 7.2%, at the 40th percentile; year-on-year growth: 7.2%; month-on-month change: -0.2%. Part I: Market Trading Logic Changes in Dominant Drivers: Historically, profit-driven capacity expansion was the key contradiction—bearish impact. Currently, cost pass-through is the dominant driver—neutral impact. Seasonality is expected to be the future dominant driver—neutral impact. Part II: Multi-Horizon Industrial Perspective (1) Macroeconomic Fundamentals China Macro: Real GDP year-on-year cumulative growth: 4.7%, at the 40th percentile; year-on-year growth: 4.7%; quarter-on-quarter change: -0.3%. Year-on-year growth in outstanding social financing scale: 7.2%, at the 40th percentile; year-on-year growth: 7.2%; month-on-month change: -0.2%. (2) Commodity-Specific Multi-Horizon Fundamentals Monthly methanol total demand: 9.0594 million tons, at the 76th percentile; year-on-year change: +1.7%; month-on-month change: -1.0%. Demand impact: slightly bullish. Inventory impact: neutral. Seasonal inventory build-up: ongoing. Cost impact: neutral. Weekly natural-gas-based methanol profit: 925 RMB/ton, mid-range percentile; year-on-year change: +455.8%; month-on-month change: +23.3%. Profit impact: neutral. Part III: Positioning Structure and Recent Price Patterns (1) Front-Month Contract Positioning Structure Front-month contract open interest declined over the past 20 days by 82,088 contracts (−15.27%). Five-day average trading volume fell relative to the 20-day average. Capital withdrawal signals subdued market sentiment.

Are downstream profits constraining methanol’s upside potential?

Market News: Overseas, core attention centers on Middle Eastern plant operations and shipping dynamics. Iranian methanol plants continue operating at low utilization rates due to natural gas supply constraints; export loading volumes remain contracted. Repeated uncertainty surrounding navigation through the Strait of Hormuz continues to trigger episodic bullish sentiment. International natural gas prices remain elevated, raising overseas methanol production costs and further limiting overseas supply availability. Domestically, macro-level expectations for end-user consumption of chemical products remain stable, with no significant policy-related headwinds emerging. Coal—the core raw material for coal-based methanol—has seen prices stabilize within a narrow range across major producing regions, providing a floor of support for coal-based methanol production costs. At ports, foreign vessel arrivals continue at a sluggish pace, resulting in limited replenishment of floating-stock supplies. Coastal spot liquidity remains tight, sustaining firm spot pricing sentiment. Regarding downstream MTO (methanol-to-olefins) operations: olefin product prices remain weak; externally procured MTO units face persistent margin pressure, prompting some facilities to maintain low operating loads. Traditional downstream sectors—including formaldehyde and acetic acid—report lackluster order inflows, with limited scope for meaningful increases in industry-wide operating rates, thus failing to generate sustained demand pull. Fundamentals: Domestic methanol supply: Previously idled plants have gradually resumed operations, lifting national methanol operating rates to 82.24% and weekly output to 1.8933 million tons—a modest increase month-on-month. However, restart progress has lagged expectations. Inventories at Northwest producers remain low, with robust order backlogs; producers exhibit limited willingness to actively sell, resulting in a slow release pace for inland supplies. Import data: Monthly import volumes have declined significantly year-on-year. In August, imports totaled 805,300 tons—down 188,300 tons from July. September arrivals are expected to remain subdued. Coastal port methanol inventories have fallen to 347,500 tons, near the lowest level in the past five years. Sustained port de-stocking remains the core support for futures prices, with tight spot liquidity maintaining a relatively strong basis. Demand side: As methanol’s largest consumption segment, MTO operating rates hover around 77%. Integrated MTO plants run stably, but externally procured MTO units remain unprofitable, dampening operators’ incentive to raise loads—and methanol procurement remains strictly demand-driven. Traditional downstream sectors collectively operate at mid-to-low annual utilization rates. Formaldehyde demand suffers from broader real estate sector weakness; seasonal improvements in acetic acid and dimethyl ether demand remain limited. Downstream enterprises broadly adopt low-inventory strategies, with no large-scale restocking observed. Cost side: Raw coal prices for coal-based methanol fluctuate within a narrow range; production margins have recovered to reasonable levels, supporting steady upstream operational enthusiasm. However, new capacity additions remain gradual, limiting near-term supply growth.

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