With midterm elections approaching, Trump has taken two actions.

Note the timing—late November. When are the midterm elections? Trump is making a final, all-or-nothing push. Though he publicly says military action is merely ‘possible,’ the aircraft carrier has already set sail—this isn’t just a possibility; it’s already underway. Currently, there are two U.S. aircraft carriers in the Middle East: the USS Bush and the USS Washington. Once the USS Roosevelt arrives—and if the USS Washington remains—the region will host three carriers. The last time such a massive naval buildup occurred was in April this year, right after a round of U.S.-Iran clashes ended with a fragile ceasefire agreement. Four months later, three carriers have returned—this time accompanied by an amphibious ready group and 2,000 Marines. Trump appears confident of victory—but whether or not the U.S. actually launches military action depends not only on carrier deployments, but also on his second move: pressuring Europe. He warned European allies that unless they release their diesel stockpiles, the U.S. would impose a diesel export ban. Coinciding with this U.S. military buildup, the G7 announced a coordinated release of petroleum reserves. On October 2, French President Emmanuel Macron convened a video summit of G7 leaders and announced an immediate release of 100 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves over four months—with diesel releases concentrated in the first 20 days. Why release oil? Because Brent crude has surged to $102 per barrel. In the Strait of Hormuz, oil tankers are being struck one after another by ‘unidentified projectiles.’ On October 1, yet another tanker caught fire after being hit while transiting the strait—three tankers have been attacked in the past week alone. Even more troubling is the diesel shortage. According to a JPMorgan report, the diesel supply deficit is far larger than that for crude oil. U.S. diesel prices have hit an all-time high—$6.40 per gallon. So what we’re seeing now are two parallel tracks: one, a military buildup—deploying a third carrier strike group and nearly 10,000 troops to the Middle East, preparing for intensified operations after the midterms; the other, an oil-release strategy—G7 countries jointly injecting 100 million barrels into global markets to suppress oil prices. One track prepares for war; the other deploys every available tool to stabilize prices. Earlier, Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian stated the proposal contained no new conditions—only a call for the U.S. to fulfill commitments already made in the June memorandum of understanding. Trump’s response? “That’s not good enough.” That raises an intriguing question: You say you want the Strait reopened; Iran offers a plan—and you reject it, then escalate militarily. What, then, is the relationship between this military escalation and oil prices?

Reports indicate the Trump administration is considering a 90-day diesel export ban—a claim later denied by the White House—while the U.S. Energy Secretary publicly opposed it.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright bluntly declared at The Economist’s New York event that a diesel export ban was “definitely unworkable,” warning it would force refineries to cut production capacity—thereby driving up gasoline and jet fuel prices. The Department of Energy subsequently issued a statement asserting that Wright “fully aligns with the President” and is “jointly exploring all viable options to lower energy prices,” seeking to downplay the apparent disagreement. Diesel prices surge amid mounting midterm election pressure U.S. diesel prices are at record highs. According to AAA data, the national average diesel price stood at $6.52 per gallon on Wednesday—up 76% from a year earlier. This surge stems from the U.S.-Iran conflict and the ongoing war in Ukraine, both contributing to persistently tight global diesel supplies. Soaring fuel costs have drawn sharp complaints from farmers and other diesel-dependent users—and have evolved into a core political challenge for Republicans. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has raised the issue of high diesel prices directly with the President. Republican lawmakers representing highly competitive districts have likewise pressured the administration to act. A White House official said Trump “wants to see oil prices fall and is evaluating all alternative options.” U.S. Energy Secretary: The ban would backfire Chris Wright’s opposition to the ban targets the policy’s fundamental contradiction. He explained that if diesel exports were banned, refineries would quickly run out of storage space—forcing them to slash overall refining output. As a result, gasoline and jet fuel production would decline in tandem, ultimately increasing price pressures on consumers. TACenergy analyst echoed this view in a report released Wednesday: “Losing the export outlet would compel many refineries to reduce operating rates, leading to lower output of gasoline and other refined products—resulting in precisely the opposite of the intended effect.” According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. refinery utilization last week stood at approximately 94% of capacity. Wright stated the administration is pursuing “simpler, voluntary, collaborative approaches” with the refining industry to boost domestic diesel supply—avoiding the use of a “blunt instrument” that would constrain refining capacity. However, he declined to disclose specifics of these initiatives and emphasized that no decisions have yet been made.

Trump's Moves to Boost Diesel Supplies Have Not Yet Lowered Prices

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US diesel prices remain near record highs despite President Trump's initiatives to increase supplies and offer tax exemptions. Analysts attribute the sustained costs to global supply crunches from conflicts in Iran and Ukraine, viewing policy measures as temporary fixes.

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