Saudi Aramco: Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens today, the market will struggle to recover immediately; if the blockade drags on for several more weeks, the supply shock will extend into next year.

Saudi Aramco’s quarterly profit surged 26%, yet its CEO issued a warning: even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, it will take months for the oil market to return to normal; should the blockade persist for several more weeks, the supply shock will extend into 2027. On Sunday, Saudi Aramco announced its first-quarter 2026 results, reporting an adjusted net profit of $33.6 billion—up 26% year-on-year and exceeding analysts’ expectations of $31.2 billion. CEO Amin Nasser attributed this strong performance to the full-capacity operation of the East-West Pipeline. This pipeline reached its maximum throughput capacity of 7 million barrels per day in Q1, bypassing the Iranian-blockaded Strait of Hormuz and delivering crude oil to Red Sea export terminals. In his statement, Amin Nasser said: "Our East-West Pipeline has proven itself a critical artery of supply, helping mitigate the impact of global energy shocks and supporting customers affected by shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz." Amin Nasser further warned: "If trade and shipping disruptions last beyond several weeks, supply interruptions are expected to persist, and the market may not normalize until 2027." Tensions in the Strait continue; new attacks occur The ceasefire agreement officially entered into force on April 8, yet friction persists heading into this weekend. According to CCTV, on the 10th local time, the UAE Ministry of Defense issued a statement saying that the UAE air defense system successfully detected and intercepted two drones launched from Iranian territory on that day. The statement also noted that no casualties resulted from the incident. According to CCTV, the Kuwaiti Armed Forces posted on social media on the 10th stating that several "hostile" drones had entered Kuwaiti airspace that day and had been “dealt with according to established procedures.”

## Latest Developments in the Iran Situation (Day 220)

- **14:00**: Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan gathered in Riyadh for the Strategic Political and Defense Committee meeting of the signatories to the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement. - **14:15**: Reuters reported that global oil prices fell amid increased crude oil exports from the Middle East. - **14:45**: TankerTrackers.com, a vessel-tracking company, reported that satellites detected 19 ship-to-ship transfers of oil, gas, and refined products within a single day. - **15:00**: According to WAFA News Agency, Israeli drones struck Khan Younis in southern Gaza, injuring several Palestinians. - **15:15**: According to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS), over 80% of buildings in the besieged Gaza Strip have been destroyed by the Israeli military since the start of its genocidal war on October 7, 2023. - **15:30**: According to WAFA News Agency, Israeli settlers attacked olive harvesters near Nablus in the West Bank. - **16:00**: A defense analyst stated that fighting between Yemen’s internationally recognized government forces and the Houthi movement could last for years. - **16:15**: An analyst told Al Jazeera that the Riyadh meeting marks the “first real test” of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement. - **16:30**: Yemen’s internationally recognized government forces claimed battlefield gains against the Houthis near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. - **16:45**: According to Fars News Agency, Iranian petrochemical producers—subject to U.S. sanctions—reported $10 billion in oil export revenue. - **17:00**: Yemen’s internationally recognized government forces claimed control over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. - **17:15**: Operation "Yemen Dawn" was launched, aiming to liberate Sana’a (reported/analyzed by journalists, scholars, or experts). - **17:20**: The Saudi-led coalition stated it conducted airstrikes against Houthi targets near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. - **17:30**: Saudi Aramco’s CEO warned that replenishing fuel supplies could take “years.” - **17:45**: U.S. senators blamed “Trump’s economic policies” for budgetary austerity amid approaching midterm elections. - **18:00**: According to Fars News Agency, the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Army warned that any new war against Iran would draw in everyone. - **18:11**: Yemen’s military stated that Houthi fighters were evacuating by sea from coastal areas. - **18:15**: WAFA News Agency, citing medical sources, reported that an Israeli strike in southern Gaza killed at least one person and injured five. - **18:26**: Yemen’s internationally recognized government forces stated they had launched a “strategic” offensive on the capital to recapture it from the Houthis. - **18:30**: According to WAFA News Agency, three Palestinian youths were shot and injured by Israeli forces near Hebron. - **18:45**: The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that an oil tanker turned back from Hormuz Port after being signaled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran.

Replenishing crude, fuel supplies could take two years, Saudi Aramco CEO says

Oct 5, 2026

Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser stated that replenishing global crude and fuel stockpiles may take two years amid supply squeezes and conflict impacts. Approximately 3 billion barrels of supply were lost, further straining the already stressed storage system.

reuters

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