Copper prices surge past $13,000—Trump’s on-board charge!

China’s reform initiative a decade ago was funded through anti-corruption campaigns and contributions from stock market investors—actions that alienated a large number of people. Yet this move bought crucial time and secured an early-mover advantage. Now, the elderly Trump must be frantic. He, too, seeks to seize a temporal advantage—acting before widespread unrest erupts (like the uprisings led by Chen Sheng and Wu Guang) and while U.S. military deterrence remains credible—to levy another round of tariffs. These funds would bolster the defense industry and seize control over supply-chain resources. That $1.5 trillion is intended as startup capital for America to maintain its regional dominance in the Western Hemisphere and achieve a strategic resurgence. Yet Congress and the Department of Justice stubbornly refuse to cooperate. So what exactly does Trump aim to achieve? III. Localized Warfare in the Americas 1. Venezuela The U.S. possesses abundant shale oil—but it is light crude. Refineries, however, require heavy crude, and Venezuela’s heavy crude is the most sought-after in South America. Moreover, Venezuela’s presidential palace reportedly holds Bitcoin reserves—a topic best left unspoken; I’ll stay silent. 2. Panama Canal Controlling this vital transportation artery enables control over bulk shipments of copper, aluminum, soybeans, and other agricultural commodities. 3. Greenland This territory hosts rare earth elements—the sole viable alternative for the U.S. to bypass China’s rare earth monopoly. Beyond rare earths, Greenland also contains uranium deposits and offers strategic command over Arctic shipping routes. As U.S. policy pivots toward a wartime economic model—relying on tariffs and military force to seize supply-chain resources—global panic (especially among resource-rich nations) inevitably follows. Fearing that their inventories held in third-country warehouses could be seized by the U.S., these countries rush to repatriate resources and store them under the watchful eyes of their own armed forces. The logic behind soaring copper prices lies precisely here: physical copper suddenly vanishes from global circulation, triggering acute, structural shortages. Note: We are living through a transitional era—previously, the U.S. dollar served as a hard-value currency, freely exchangeable for any commodity. Today, however, the dollar’s hard-value status has sharply eroded. Even the U.S. itself can no longer simply print unlimited money to buy resources; instead, it must expand industrial capacity and manufacture warplanes and artillery to seize those resources directly. Amid uncertainty over what will replace the dollar as the next hard-value currency, global markets—beyond treating gold as a temporary buffer for speculative capital (as discussed previously)—are collectively re-embracing tangible assets, prioritizing productive capacity, and returning to manufacturing. We thus witness the profound wisdom embedded in Eastern thinking—not merely about who defeats whom, but about compelling global capital to invest in manufacturing. Through capital injections from entrepreneurs like Lin Yufeng, massive employment is generated, lifting villagers in Wangmiao Village out of poverty. What magnificence! IV. The Great Copper Inventory Migration Finally, let us turn to copper itself. Trump’s tariff agenda pursues multiple objectives simultaneously. Yet capital abhors risk. Over the past nine months, copper traders operating within the dollar-based system have—spontaneously and in unison—moved their inventories out of warehouses in Chile, Africa, and Asia and into the United States, preemptively avoiding Trump’s threatened 60% tariff on imported copper. This volume of refined copper totals 450,000 tonnes—or even more. Consequently, two-thirds of the world’s copper inventory now sits stockpiled in U.S. warehouses, while inventories at the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Asian bonded zones dwindle steadily. That is the real story behind copper’s price explosion to $13,000—not because the global economy has improved and demand for copper has surged worldwide, but because two-thirds of the global inventory has been relocated to the U.S. and locked away under the guise of strategic reserves. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs renders traders unwilling to ship copper back out of the U.S.

LME copper surges to $14,779—a new record high; SHFE copper rebounds above the RMB 110,000 per tonne threshold. As copper acquires dual attributes—as both an industrial metal and a computing-power resource—what impact does this have across industries?

The ‘great migration’ of copper inventories is the most direct catalyst behind this rally. Since the U.S. proposed imposing import tariffs on copper in February 2025, COMEX copper prices have persistently traded at a premium over LME prices, opening an arbitrage window that has drawn a continuous flow of copper shipments into the United States. On May 22, LME witnessed a single-day cancellation of warrants—and withdrawal of over 50,000 tonnes of copper—setting a record since 2013. Inventory distribution has consequently become severely imbalanced: COMEX stocks have surged to a historic high of approximately 696,000 tonnes, while LME stocks have plunged to roughly 236,000 tonnes—of which only about 115,000 tonnes remain immediately deliverable. According to calculations by reporters from the Shanghai Securities Journal, domestic inventories have concurrently declined: as of September 7, mainstream market copper inventories stood at 85,100 tonnes—down more than 60,000 tonnes year-on-year. Meanwhile, Codelco—the Chilean state-owned copper company—has quoted a record-high premium of $350 per tonne for deliveries to Chinese buyers. Per procedure, the U.S. Department of Commerce submitted its Section 232 investigation recommendations by the end of June; the President must issue a final decision within a 90-day window following submission. Market consensus expects tariffs to take effect as early as January 2027—meaning the current ‘rush-to-import’ phase shows no signs of abating. Just how powerful is the pricing influence of tariff expectations? Goldman Sachs’s June research report revised upward its forecast for U.S. copper inventory accumulation in 2026—from 550,000 tonnes to 900,000 tonnes—and raised its projection for supply deficits outside the U.S. from 60,000 tonnes to 640,000 tonnes. ANZ Bank’s early-September report candidly acknowledged that, amid tariff concerns, mining supply constraints, and resilient demand, copper prices may climb further—surpassing previous all-time highs. Its prediction of ‘a new record high by early next year’ has already been fulfilled ahead of schedule. Divergences are emerging, however: Cristián Cifuentes, analyst at Chile’s copper industry think tank Cesco, bluntly stated, ‘This is a tariff-driven metal relocation—not a case of excess final demand. It reflects localized shortages, not global scarcity.’ Frontline industry experience corroborates this view. On September 8, a reporter from the Shanghai Securities Journal contacted a leading A-share copper company posing as an investor. The company confirmed that, from its operational perspective, no major changes had occurred. Regarding the causes of rising copper prices, the company explained to the reporter that the primary driver is the still-unimplemented U.S. tariff policy, prompting ongoing arbitrage activity—copper continues flowing into the U.S., while inventories outside the U.S. keep shrinking. ‘Some enterprises remain within the current window period: the U.S. has imported massive volumes of copper over the past two months, yet domestic U.S. manufacturing remains sluggish, meaning actual demand is modest,’ the source added. ‘Declining inventories outside the U.S. have triggered localized supply tightness—but this is not a global supply-demand imbalance.’ If the ‘copper rush’ serves as the spark, then mine-side contraction forms the solid foundation of the ‘copper bull market.’ Data released by the International Copper Association (ICSG) in early August showed that global copper mine output fell 1.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025—with copper concentrate output down 2.6%—indicating an overall contraction in mine supply. Chile’s copper exports totaled $4.62 billion in August, down 14% month-on-month—the lowest level since July 2025. Supply disruptions in Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo continue to surface intermittently. Deutsche Bank forecasts a further global copper production decline of approximately 300,000 tonnes in 2026; Goldman Sachs has lowered its global mine supply forecast by roughly 350,000 tonnes, describing the worsening supply situation as ‘far worse than expected.’

Trump Tariff Threat Built US Copper Stockpiles, But Effects Fading

Oct 14, 2026

Trump's tariff threats drove US copper stockpiles over 1 million tons, creating global shortages and price surges, though the arbitrage incentive is now weakening as traders await policy decisions.

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