According to the OECD, what is the projected global GDP growth rate under the 'prolonged disruption' scenario where US-Iran conflict continues into 2027?

The OECD forecasts that under the 'prolonged disruption' scenario — defined as no US-Iran agreement until 2027 — global GDP growth would fall to 2.1% this year, down from 3.4% in 2025, and would push 'some economies into or close to recession', with emerging economies hit hardest.

What are the key economic consequences of the prolonged Middle East conflict outlined by the OECD, beyond GDP slowdown?

Beyond GDP slowdown, the OECD warns the prolonged conflict would cause oil and gas shortages leading to 'enforced rationing' of energy for businesses; drive up prices of fertilisers and industrial inputs like sulphur and helium; increase datacentre operating costs and constrain supply of critical AI hardware, weakening AI-driven growth; raise inflation pressure forcing difficult monetary policy trade-offs; increase corporate borrowing costs due to eroded confidence; and amplify financial stability risks via the opaque, interconnected private credit sector — especially given $90tn in G20 corporate debt, a quarter of which matures within three years.

OECD Predicts Global Recessions if Iran Conflict Drags into 2027

Jun 3, 2026

The OECD warns a prolonged Iran conflict could trigger global recessions by 2027 via energy shortages and rising costs for industrial inputs like fertilizers and sulphur. This scenario threatens GDP growth, forcing energy rationing and increasing inflation risks across emerging economies.

theguardian

2026-06-03

OECD Predicts Global Recessions if Iran Conflict Drags into 2027

OECD Predicts Global Recessions if Iran Conflict Drags into 2027

FAQ