Will U.S. stocks fear oil prices nearing the '100-yuan threshold'?

He estimates that current oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz stand at approximately 10 million barrels per day—about half the pre-war level—with Middle Eastern exports down roughly 2 million barrels per day and Russian exports reduced by another ~2 million barrels per day due to Ukrainian drone strikes. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has remained depressed for several weeks. According to preliminary data from Kpler, only nine cargo vessels transited the waterway on Monday, and just five had done so by the time of Tuesday’s report. In contrast, daily transits approached 30 vessels shortly after the U.S.-Iran preliminary peace agreement was signed at the end of June this year—and hovered near 100 vessels per day during the ten days preceding the outbreak of war. Multiple institutions have raised oil price forecasts, with upside risks markedly elevated. Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, several Wall Street firms have successively upgraded their Brent crude price forecasts. According to The Wall Street Journal, Kim Fustier, HSBC’s Senior Global Oil & Gas Analyst, raised her 2023 Brent crude baseline forecast in a Tuesday report from $80/barrel to $90/barrel, adjusting her base-case scenario to one in which the U.S. and Iran reach some form of understanding—but one repeatedly vulnerable to collapse. She expects liquid throughput via the Strait of Hormuz to gradually rebound from its current level of 6 million barrels per day to 8 million barrels per day by year-end and 9.5 million barrels per day by mid-2024—still far below the pre-war level of roughly 20 million barrels per day. “This implies the market will remain tighter for longer than previously anticipated,” Fustier noted. Chris Weston, Head of Research at Pepperstone Group, stated: "Since late February, the situation has seen too many reversals: each time we thought things might improve, expectations were dashed. We’re essentially back where we started." Goldman Sachs and Bank of America analysts likewise revised their Brent forecasts upward. In a Monday report, Bank of America analysts wrote: "If low-intensity conflict persistently constraining oil flows continues through year-end, Brent could trade in a range of $95–$120 per barrel; if hostilities escalate and inflict major damage on key energy infrastructure, oil prices could surge to $150 per barrel." Daan Struyven and colleagues at Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, slightly raised their oil price forecasts under the assumption that shipping disruptions will persist through 2027, emphasizing that "the risks to our price forecasts are clearly skewed to the upside." Rising inflation expectations, Treasury yields emerge as new pressure point for U.S. equities The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. stocks extends beyond direct cost pressures—their transmission through inflation expectations into the bond market is becoming a broader market concern. U.S. domestic gasoline prices have risen sharply alongside oil, weighing heavily on consumer discretionary stocks over the past month; industrial companies reliant on petroleum as a key input cost face similar headwinds. José Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers, commented: "If geopolitical tensions fail to ease, progress on inflation could reverse." The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.805% on Tuesday—the highest closing level since October 2023. Higher yields imply increased corporate financing costs and diminish the relative attractiveness of risk assets such as equities.

Global Market Recap: September 4, 2023

Last Friday, the nonfarm payrolls report bolstered expectations of a Fed rate pause: following the release, both two- and ten-year U.S. Treasury yields hit three-week lows, the U.S. Dollar Index plunged to a fresh daily low, and U.S. equities opened higher. However, subsequent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials cooled sentiment: Treasury yields surged more than 10 basis points, the Dollar Index rebounded and neared a two-month high, and U.S. stocks pared gains—each of the three major indices briefly turned negative intraday. Ultimately, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both logged their second consecutive weekly gain: the S&P posted its largest weekly advance in over two months, while both the Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial Average registered their biggest weekly gains in seven weeks. The energy sector surged over 10% for the week. Tesla fell more than 5%. The semiconductor index extended its winning streak to six sessions—but NVIDIA dropped 1.7%, retreating from its all-time high, and Broadcom slid over 5% following its earnings report. Dell soared 20%, hitting a new record high. Crude oil hit a nine-month high; WTI oil posted seven consecutive daily gains and rose over 7% for the week—the largest weekly gain in five months. Gold briefly turned negative but closed narrowly higher, extending its winning streak to two weeks. LME nickel rose nearly 4%, reversing five straight losses; LME copper rebounded to a four-week high. In China, during U.S. trading hours, the NASDAQ China Index rose over 3% for the session and nearly 9% for the week. NIO gained over 7%; Pinduoduo rose over 4%—and nearly 30% for the week following its earnings release. After the People’s Bank of China announced a cut in the foreign currency deposit reserve ratio, offshore RMB surged over 300 pips, breaking above 7.24 to hit a three-week high. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.43%, with consumer staples and resource stocks rallying broadly; property stocks showed divergent performance. U.S. markets were closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday. Nonetheless, this week features the release of the Fed’s Beige Book and earnings reports from several blue-chip companies. Notably, data released last Friday showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 187,000 in August—above market expectations—while the unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in August, up sharply from July’s figure and marking its highest level since February 2022. CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicates traders of federal funds futures assign a 93% probability to the Fed holding rates steady at its September meeting, and only a 36% chance of a rate hike in November. Loretta Mester, President of the Cleveland Fed, stated that even though signs suggest the labor market has achieved better balance, it remains robust—and reaffirmed that future rate decisions will hinge on incoming data. China markets: The A50 Index delivered a lackluster performance last week. Despite numerous supportive policy measures, the index staged a sharp rebound followed by a rapid pullback—prompting regulators to roll out additional support policies over the weekend. Let’s patiently observe market developments throughout September! Last week, the A50 Index rose 313 points to close at 12,812—a weekly gain of 2.50%. A-share indices traded in narrow ranges throughout the session; the ChiNext Index underperformed relatively. At market close, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.11%. The coal sector surged strongly: Yunnan Coal Energy and Shaanxi Heimao both hit the daily limit-up. Consumer stocks broadly rallied, with home furnishings, food & beverage, liquor, tourism, and hotel & catering stocks leading gains. Cyclical stocks also strengthened: besides coal, steel and nonferrous metals posted strong advances. Hangzhou Asian Games-related stocks rallied near midday: Hangzhou Landscape surged 20% to its daily limit-up; Hangzhou Jiebai, Zhongzhuang Construction, and Sanjiang Shopping all hit the daily limit-up. Aquaculture, nuclear contamination prevention, data elements, and environmental protection sectors posted the steepest declines.

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