Iran Weekly Situation Report: Iran Conducts Intensive Missile Tests and Escalates Ship Attacks; Oil Prices Hit Nearly Five-Month High; U.S.-Iran Rivalry in the Middle East Stirs New Turbulence

According to a report released by the UK-based Conflict Armament Research (CAR) on October 14, the Houthi movement is attempting to assemble an upgraded variant of Iran’s ‘Hajjar Shekan’ ballistic missile inside Yemen. The relevant components are reportedly sourced from a shipment intercepted by Yemeni authorities at a port. The report traces the origin of these components to a supplier in a third country—though this claim remains unverifiable through independent sources. In response to the allegations raised in CAR’s report, China has previously stated that it consistently and firmly implements UN Security Council resolutions concerning the arms embargo on Yemen, maintains strict control over arms exports, and opposes groundless smearing or malicious associations. October 14–15: Israel Pushes for Resumption of Strikes Ahead of Elections; Iran Directs Hezbollah to Raise Alert Levels According to reports by U.S. outlet Axios and Israel’s Channel 12 on October 13, Netanyahu and Trump discussed the possibility of launching a new round of military action against Iran ahead of Israel’s parliamentary elections (October 27) and the U.S. midterm elections (November 3). A U.S. official stated that Netanyahu “appears eager to launch another military operation,” while Trump responded with “get ready first,” without making any commitment. White House officials subsequently denied claims that the two leaders “discussed resuming war against Iran,” reiterating Trump’s publicly stated position: he would not attack Iran before the midterms. Though the accounts differ, the fact remains unchanged—that U.S. and Israeli militaries remain on high alert and continue refining their contingency plans. On October 15, according to Lebanese military sources speaking to UAE media, Iran recently instructed Lebanon’s Hezbollah to elevate its military readiness to an “advanced level” in preparation for a possible imminent regional conflict with the United States and Israel. Iran is also restructuring Hezbollah’s command system under the so-called “mosaic doctrine,” enabling decentralized, independent operations even after decapitation strikes. On October 5, Lebanese security forces seized 780 kilograms of explosives—including 250 kilograms of C-4 plastic explosive—being smuggled into Lebanon from Syria by Hezbollah. On the same day, Iraq’s parliament approved the appointment of pro-Iran militia figures—including Ra’is al-Khazali, a senior member of Iraq’s “Kata’ib Hezbollah”—to key cabinet positions, including Deputy Prime Minister and ministerial posts. The United States had previously explicitly opposed any Iraqi militia members holding senior positions in the federal government. This development signals a further expansion of Iran’s political influence in Iraq. October 16: U.S. Declares “Strait of Hormuz Remains Open”; Iran’s Energy Exports Remain Minimal According to a Reuters report on October 16, Iran is conducting ship-to-ship transfers of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and aviation fuel tankers near Oman’s coastline. Maritime security sources indicated that since mid-July, at least eight LPG tankers and one aviation fuel tanker have departed the Gulf of Oman. However, export volumes remain extremely limited: approximately 4.1 million barrels over three months—averaging about 1.36 million barrels per month—just 2% of Iran’s average monthly export volume in January. U.S. Central Command insists no vessels have successfully broken through the blockade. On the same day, General Michael E. Kurilla, Commander of U.S. Central Command, stated in a video address that the maritime blockade has prevented Iran from exporting at least $25 billion worth of crude oil and frozen roughly $350 million in Iranian cryptocurrency assets. He further asserted that the Strait of Hormuz remains open for commercial traffic, under the control of the United States and its regional partners.

A Dangerous New Phase, Trump’s Calculations, and High Oil Prices: Media Perspectives on the Second Phase of the U.S.-Iran War

According to an exclusive interview last week with OilPrice.com, a senior energy industry figure closely collaborating with Iran’s Ministry of Petroleum revealed that Iran’s objective upon concluding the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) negotiations is to secure nearly all of its original 14-point ceasefire demands. He stated: “These include Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon, the U.S. withdrawal from the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding areas, the full lifting of international sanctions against Iran, and a $300 billion reconstruction funding pledge to Tehran.” He added: “They also seek to retain control over uranium enrichment within Iran—under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) supervision—to meet domestic electricity needs.” Collectively, these conditions would eliminate the existential threat posed to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—the guardian of the 1979 revolution’s ideology and the principal vehicle for exporting that ideology internationally via proxy networks. Both the original version of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the nuclear deal, and the Trump administration’s revised iteration, were fundamentally designed to dismantle the IRGC entirely. Over time, Washington believes the IRGC’s unique financial, commercial, and political support structure within Iran will be gradually dismantled, allowing the organization to be absorbed into Iran’s regular armed forces. The U.S. view holds that this step would ultimately lead to the collapse of the Islamic Republic itself—and that Iran would eventually transition, in some form, to a democratic system. For Trump, affixing his name to a final agreement incorporating all these elements would be catastrophic for the ideological legacy he seeks to leave as president. Conversely, escalating the conflict with Iran to a point where he and his Republican Party perform poorly in the upcoming midterm elections would leave him as a lame-duck executive—a scenario that would not only jeopardize the GOP’s chances of winning the next presidential election but also hinder Trump’s broader ambition of establishing a political dynasty. Moreover, such a failure would more clearly pave the way for future Democratic-led criminal prosecutions and impeachment proceedings against Trump—regardless of whether those charges hold merit. Consequently, according to sources in both Washington and Tehran, Trump is most likely to maintain the status quo: pursuing limited military actions within the ongoing framework of final agreement negotiations—actions calibrated to avoid triggering further major escalation by Iran. Nevertheless, Washington-based sources concluded: “After the midterms—regardless of the outcome—all of Trump’s constraints will be lifted, and I believe he will not stop until he secures the agreement he truly wants, including regime change.” Fuel Prices Will Remain Elevated for the Long Term Following the outbreak of the second phase of the U.S.-Iran war on July 7, 2026, international oil prices—which had fallen below pre-war levels (as of February 27, 2026) by early July—reversed course and surged to $90 per barrel by July 20. On that date, energy analyst Irina Slav wrote in OilPrice.com that, amid renewed escalation in the Middle East, fuel prices are expected to remain elevated for the long term. Slav argues that renewed Middle East tensions have disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices upward while global crude and refined fuel inventories continue to dwindle. The fuel market is tighter than the crude market: despite weak Chinese crude demand, damaged refineries in the Middle East and Russia have driven up gasoline and diesel prices. Analysts warn that with low inventories, constrained refining capacity, and robust demand, governments have few options to ease market tightness—meaning fuel prices may continue rising.

Oil Extends Advance on Renewed Tensions Between the US and Iran

Sep 23, 2026

Oil prices surged amid renewed US-Iran tensions, with WTI nearing $93 and Brent exceeding $103 per barrel. Speculation on potential US diesel export curbs contributes to market volatility as energy costs impact global inflation.

bloomberg

Oil Extends Advance on Renewed Tensions Between the US and Iran

FAQ