Saudi oil exports resume, oil prices fall; Putin's party wins big in parliament—how should we view this?

Welcome to 'Xiao Kao Shijie' — a column covering the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global affairs, humanities, and history! Today, we begin once again with developments in the Middle East. 【1.1】As market concerns over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ease, international oil prices weakened at the start of the new trading week. By the close on the 21st, NYMEX WTI crude fell by USD 4.52 to USD 95.78 per barrel, a decline of 4.51%; London Brent crude dropped USD 3.53 to USD 100.34 per barrel, down 3.4%. McKay, Senior Commodities Strategist at TD Securities, stated that crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz are increasing, and overall crude transport volumes across the Middle East have rebounded to roughly 80% of pre-conflict levels. Over the past two days, some readers in the comment section questioned U.S. Central Command General Cooper’s claim that thousands of commercial vessels had passed through the Strait since the outbreak of hostilities. It appears General Cooper is a liar—and so too is Mr. McKay of TD Securities. We must absolutely not believe them. Instead, we must trust that Iran possesses the full capability to impose a long-term, complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. You’re telling me WTI and Brent prices have fallen back toward USD 100? Impossible! This is entirely an illusion fabricated by decadent, corrupt, chronically dishonest capitalism. The true global oil price right now is USD 200—no, USD 300—per barrel! The U.S. imperialists will surely 'bite the dust' sooner or later! Returning to normal reasoning: Why has international oil prices fallen? Primarily due to news suggesting Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline may partially resume operations within days. Bloomberg reported on the 16th that Saudi Arabia plans to restore approximately half the pipeline’s transport capacity within days. And as of today—the 22nd—Reuters’ latest report confirms that Saudi Arabia has already restarted the East-West Pipeline, albeit at a low initial throughput. It seems my earlier criticism of Saudi Arabia for failing to diligently safeguard its 'rice bowl' was somewhat hasty. In fact, Saudi Arabia does have emergency repair teams—and they work efficiently. Additionally, Reuters reported on the 21st that on the 20th, Saudi Aramco loaded approximately 14 million barrels of crude onto seven very large crude carriers (VLCCs) at Ras Tanura port in the Persian Gulf. This figure is substantial: seven VLCCs carrying 14 million barrels—averaging about 2 million barrels per vessel—and these figures derive from actual satellite imagery and vessel-tracking data, not official Saudi misinformation. Reuters interprets this as a sign of partial recovery in Saudi crude exports. Meanwhile, Saudi crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged around 2.9 million barrels per day over the six days ending September 18—far exceeding August’s average of roughly 700,000 barrels per day. Driven by these positive developments, international crude futures prices have declined each of the past four trading days. What makes this especially intriguing is that oil prices fell simply because Saudi Arabia loaded 14 million barrels onto VLCCs—even before those tankers set sail. What does this signify? Recall: Ras Tanura lies on Saudi Arabia’s eastern coast along the Persian Gulf! This indicates that analysts at major trading firms—whose annual internet expenses run into millions of dollars—are more confident than some ordinary readers that this oil can indeed transit the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, it is not only Iran that can manipulate global oil prices by threatening to close the Strait.

From 'shipping suspension panic' to 'oversupply crisis': The U.S.-Iran agreement triggers a 30% plunge in oil prices; Goldman Sachs warns of nearly 2 million barrels per day of net global oil surplus next year

With the U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation substantially cooling, the global crude oil market is undergoing a dramatic fundamental shift—from 'supply panic' to 'oversupply crisis'. On Wednesday, international oil prices plunged again amid heavy selling pressure: both WTI and Brent crude futures briefly fell more than 1.70%. Brent crude broke below the USD 73 threshold, sharply retreating from its wartime peak above USD 126. The immediate catalyst behind this sharp price drop is the rapid de-escalation of Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions. A White House spokesperson explicitly stated that the U.S. and Iran have a strong chance of reaching an agreement, and delegations from both sides held indirect talks in Doha on July 1, focusing on unfreezing Iranian assets and ensuring maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley alike assert that the global oil market is poised to re-enter a state of severe supply surplus. Even accounting for massive global demand to replenish strategic petroleum reserves, the market’s average daily net surplus of crude oil next year will still approach 2 million barrels—exerting sustained downward pressure on prices. U.S.-Iran agreement advances; geopolitical premium fully unwinds The crude oil market is rapidly shedding the 'war premium' previously priced in. According to Xinhua News Agency, sources revealed that the U.S. and Iran held indirect talks in Doha—the capital of Qatar—on July 1, with Qatar and Pakistan serving as mediators. Key agenda items included implementing the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, centering on unfreezing Iranian frozen assets and guaranteeing maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz. With the implementation of a provisional U.S.-Iran peace agreement, the Strait of Hormuz—the vital waterway linking the Persian Gulf to global markets—is witnessing a revival in shipping activity. Although two recent vessel attacks occurred, vessel traffic through the Strait continues to rise. Meanwhile, Iran has reaffirmed its commitment to managing maritime traffic in the Strait and may coordinate joint actions with Oman. Shipping order restoration imminent; Wall Street collectively bears The reopening of Middle Eastern crude supply routes has directly triggered investment banks’ concerns over market oversupply. Samantha Dart, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, told Bloomberg Television that as the impact of the Iran conflict fades and maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal, global oil markets will again face supply surplus. Dart noted that exports via the Strait of Hormuz are expected to normalize by the end of July. Once Strait throughput recovers, the market will enter an oversupplied phase, with projected average daily crude surplus next year slightly exceeding 3 million barrels.

Oil Extends Decline on Easing Mideast Geopolitical Tension

Aug 5, 2026

Oil prices fell amid hopes of US-Iran deescalation, with Brent dropping to $78.52/barrel and WTI to $74.75/barrel.

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Oil Extends Decline on Easing Mideast Geopolitical Tension

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