Four major positive developments coincide, prompting international oil prices to fall.

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari stated on Tuesday that Qatar and other mediators continue to relay messages between Iran and the United States, with multiple parties exchanging potential solutions. According to a Xinhua News Agency report on the same day, Trump confirmed at the White House on the 28th that indirect negotiations between the U.S. and Iran had taken place, and that negotiation representatives from both sides had exchanged information via intermediaries. Second, Saudi Arabia’s East–West Pipeline has restored approximately half of its oil transportation capacity. This pipeline serves as a critical alternative route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Previously damaged by drone attacks, its partial resumption directly alleviates global supply concerns. Rebecca Babin, Senior Energy Trader at CIBC Private Wealth Management, stated: “Increased flow through the Strait of Hormuz—combined with the restart of Saudi Arabia’s East–West Pipeline—is providing some immediate supply relief to the market.” She added: “The question is what this means for Iran—reduced leverage over the Strait of Hormuz may either make Iran more willing to return to the negotiating table, or prompt it to escalate actions to regain the initiative.” Third, the IEA signals readiness to act; the U.S. plans to release SPR stocks. The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced it stands ready to release additional strategic reserves into the market. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Energy announced it would again draw up to 40 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Fourth, Trump reportedly supports easing sanctions on Russia. Russia is a major global oil producer. Reports indicate the Trump administration is developing a new framework to ease tensions with Russia. According to media citing U.S. Special Envoy John Coale, Trump backs a proposal to ease sanctions on Russia in exchange for the release of political prisoners. Iranian threats remain unresolved Although positive news dominated market sentiment, geopolitical risks have not receded. On Monday, Iran reportedly attacked a very large crude carrier (VLCC) in the Strait of Hormuz—an action widely interpreted as a signal that Iran has resumed targeting transit vessels following last week’s collapse of UN-led diplomatic talks. Iran’s Parliament Speaker Bagher Ghalibaf reiterated on Tuesday: “The U.S. should know that in regions where we cannot sell oil, no one else can either.”

De facto negotiations between the U.S. and Iran? Iranian concessions? Persistent disagreements? Saudi restoration of exports? Overnight oil prices oscillated downward amid competing bullish and bearish signals.

International oil prices experienced sharp intraday volatility on Monday, swinging wildly amid successive bullish and bearish headlines—ultimately narrowing gains and even turning negative temporarily. The restart of Saudi Arabia’s East–West Pipeline, positive signals from U.S.–Iran nuclear talks, reports that Iran agreed to suspend uranium enrichment, and an immediate U.S. negotiator statement highlighting persistent disagreements—all four contradictory developments emerged within hours, transforming the crude futures market into a ‘headline roulette’. That day, WTI crude peaked at $96.54 per barrel, gaining nearly 4.5% intraday; Brent crude rose as high as $108.83 per barrel, up over 4.3%. Yet as U.S.–Iran diplomatic news flooded in, gains rapidly narrowed: WTI briefly fell to $91.25 per barrel—a near 1% intraday decline; Brent dipped to $103.76 per barrel. From their intraday highs, both contracts shed more than $5. The core market logic centered on whether diplomatic progress could translate into tangible supply restoration—not on facts already realized. Meanwhile, according to media reports citing informed sources, Iranian officials privately expressed pessimism about reaching a deal before the U.S. midterm elections on November 5, believing the likelihood of escalated conflict after the election is high. This stance starkly contrasted with the fleeting optimism seen during trading hours—and further undermined any sustained one-way price movement. Intense U.S.–Iran diplomatic headlines drive algorithmic volatility What truly triggered the ‘roller-coaster’ price action was the concentrated barrage of U.S.–Iran diplomatic news during the afternoon session. According to ZeroHedge’s timeline, key developments unfolded sequentially during trading hours: CNN reported Trump’s willingness to ease sanctions in exchange for nuclear progress—prompting an immediate price drop; shortly thereafter, Saudi outlet Alhadath reported Iran’s agreement to suspend uranium enrichment—further pushing prices lower; then came news that Iranian officials were pessimistic about a pre-election deal—triggering a rebound; finally, a U.S. negotiator told Al Arabiya TV that ‘differences are enormous and obstacles significant’—reigniting selling pressure. Bloomberg analyst Frank Monkam noted the recent resurgence of so-called ‘VaR shock’ strategies—where headline-driven volatility tends to concentrate around noon Eastern Time, when market liquidity thins. The logic: the $105–$110/bbl Brent range ($95/bbl for WTI) represents a key psychological threshold; verbal interventions not only suppress prices but also generate volatility sufficient to force traders to slash positions. From peak to trough that day, WTI plunged from $96.54 to $91.25 per barrel, while Brent fell from $108.83 to $103.76 per barrel—both shedding over $5 within hours. Saudi pipeline restart—the first concrete supply-side relief The first substantive bearish catalyst pressuring oil prices that day was the restart of Saudi Arabia’s East–West Pipeline. According to WallStreetCN, citing The Wall Street Journal and informed sources, Saudi Aramco began loading crude onto tankers bound for the Red Sea port of Yanbu via the East–West Pipeline as early as Sunday, with current throughput estimated at approximately 3.5 million barrels per day.

Oil falls as Trump comments on Iran talks ease supply concerns

2 days ago

Oil prices dropped after President Trump indicated no attack on Iran before US elections, easing Middle East supply fears. Brent crude fell to $103.53 per barrel while Hurricane Isaias disrupted US Gulf production by over 60%.

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