The U.S. and Iran have been engaged in conflict for over seven months, turning WTI crude oil into a roller coaster.

On August 18, the two-month negotiation period expired—with neither side renewing it. The U.S. brandished its economic warfare baton, vowing to impose the 'toughest sanctions ever,' while Iran fired back, threatening to halt all oil exports from the Persian Gulf. On August 24—the day the sanctions took effect—WTI fell 2.35% to $85.01, triggering a classic 'buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news' market reaction. But the calm didn’t last: oil prices were hammered for two consecutive days, plunging intra-day to below $81 on August 26. Only after U.S. forces bombed Larak Island and Iranian missiles struck a U.S. military base in Jordan did WTI rebound above $85. September 1 marked the most dramatic day yet: within three days, U.S. and Iranian forces launched reciprocal strikes. Ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to just two vessels per day—the lowest since the conflict began—and WTI surged 5.20% in a single session to $90.22, breaking decisively above the $90 threshold. It then marched steadily upward: $93.03 on September 8; $96.05 on September 9; and on September 10, it breached $100 intra-day before closing at $102.48—the first time since May that WTI closed above triple digits. (A genuine close above $100 had occurred in mid-to-late May; subsequent attempts since June had only reached $100 intra-day, failing to hold at settlement.) On September 11, WTI eased slightly, closing at $100.05. What happened around September 10? Within two days, U.S. forces sank eight Iranian tankers—and Iran retaliated by targeting commercial vessels passing through the region. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia’s East–West Pipeline (Petroline), which carries roughly 5 million barrels per day and serves as the Kingdom’s vital alternative route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, was shut down following a drone strike launched from Iraq. In late September, the UN General Assembly convened in New York: U.S. and Iranian representatives held a three-hour meeting—but the U.S. promptly rejected Iran’s proposal. Iran floated a plan to ‘reopen the Strait within one week,’ only for Trump to publicly declare, ‘I rejected it.’ On September 23, WTI rose 1.81% to close at $92.16—negotiations had collapsed, Strait transits again slumped to two ships per day, and WTI remained stuck grinding sideways at elevated levels. Current situation: $91—and waiting for the election From late September into early October, oil prices first retreated toward $87. On October 6, Strait transit volume fell to seven vessels—still in single digits. Two days later, this figure ignited the market: on October 8, WTI surged over 4% in a single day; by October 9, it rose another 0.39%, closing at $91.85. The latest signals are contradictory: Trump has publicly pledged not to strike Iran before the midterm elections—but the Pentagon has already directed U.S. Central Command to complete large-scale combat preparations. The script is clear: no action before the vote, but escalation possible immediately afterward. Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared its strike range would extend beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Adding further complexity, a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico disrupted 1.5 million barrels per day of U.S. production. Analysts now project WTI will trade sideways between $90.50 and $92.50 in the near term—the breakout direction hinges on Iran’s response to any U.S. counterproposal and the pace of post-election military escalation. One additional undercurrent—freight rates—only becomes fully visible now: VLCC freight rates on the Middle East–China route have skyrocketed from ~$120,000/day pre-war to over $1.2 million/day. Spot freight costs now equate to $22–$25 per barrel—accounting for roughly one-fifth of refiners’ landed cost.

Wave-Particle Trading Academy | Daily Market View — October 9, 2026: Undercurrents in the Middle East and Technical Recap of Gold, Crude Oil, and EUR/USD

Disclaimer This article presents a technical review of historical price action and is intended solely for academic discussion. All content herein is based strictly on objective records of prices that have already occurred; all technical indicator descriptions reflect only past market behavior and do not constitute any forecast or investment recommendation regarding future price direction. Any references to specific price levels or directional statements fall strictly within the scope of technical analysis and carry no predictive or suggestive implication for future market movements. Please exercise independent and prudent judgment when assessing market risk. Risk Statement: Leveraged trading products—including gold, foreign exchange, and crude oil—carry extremely high risk and may result in losses exceeding the initial investment. They are not suitable for all investors. Please ensure you fully understand the associated risks and make independent decisions aligned with your financial circumstances and risk tolerance. Past market performance does not guarantee future results. Tonight’s release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data, combined with heightened geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and ongoing hurricane-related disruptions to crude supply, may significantly amplify market volatility—investors should exercise exceptional caution. Nature of This Article This article constitutes a technical review of historical market behavior and purely academic discussion. It is not a marketing activity for any financial product; it does not promote or endorse any specific financial instrument, trading platform, or financial institution; and it does not constitute investment advice, financial planning guidance, or trading instruction of any kind. All quoted price levels are objective records from market data terminals and imply no trading signal or return expectation. Geopolitical Undercurrents and Broader Market Context On Thursday, the U.S. Dollar Index rose initially then declined, closing down 0.15% but remaining firmly above the 102 threshold at 102.12. Long-end U.S. Treasury yields spiked then retreated: the 10-year yield fell 5.9 basis points to 5.233%, while the 2-year yield edged lower to 4.764%. Fed officials Waller and Musalem reiterated hawkish stances, affirming that further rate hikes remain possible this year—though the pace retains flexibility. Markets currently assign only a 17% probability to a rate hike in October, while the likelihood of a December hike remains elevated at 81%. Geopolitically, the U.S.–Iran dynamic has entered a phase of negotiation-driven maneuvering. Trump has stated he will not strike Iran before the midterm elections—but Washington simultaneously escalated sanctions targeting Iranian oil tankers. Iran maintains its uranium enrichment program, and shipping risk through the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. A hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico has forced widespread shutdowns of U.S. crude output, introducing significant supply disruption—and fueling a sharp oil price rally—before some gains were retraced amid news of U.S.–Iran de-escalation. Meanwhile, persistent fiscal concerns in France continue to roil eurozone markets, pushing French government bond yields higher and causing the euro to fluctuate passively with the dollar. Today’s key events: Tonight’s release of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and One-Year Inflation Expectations data; early Friday morning’s U.S. oil rig count report; and a speech by Fed official Collins. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East remain highly unpredictable, and hurricane-related supply impacts continue to shape crude oil expectations—market volatility is expected to remain elevated. Given the high degree of uncertainty surrounding both geopolitical events and macroeconomic data releases—and the unpredictability of their market impact direction and magnitude—investors must carefully assess all associated risks and make independent decisions. ⚠️ This section provides only an objective summary of publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice or any directional trading suggestion. I. Gold (XAU/USD) – Technical Review Yesterday’s Price Action Recap (H1 Timeframe)

Oil Falls on Increased Gulf Supply and Hopes for US-Iran Talks

Sep 22, 2026

Oil prices dropped as Saudi Arabia resumed pipeline operations and US-Iran diplomatic hopes rose, pushing Brent below $100/barrel despite rising US inventories.

reuters

Oil Falls on Increased Gulf Supply and Hopes for US-Iran Talks

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