Why did oil prices rise and US stock futures fall following the latest US strikes on Iran?

Oil prices rose—West Texas Intermediate jumped 2.2% to over $75 a barrel and Brent briefly topped $80—because the US launched a second consecutive day of strikes on Iran 'to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz,' raising fears of disrupted shipping through this critical global oil chokepoint; simultaneously, US equity futures slipped 0.1% as the escalation rekindled inflation concerns and prompted money markets to advance expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike from December to October.

How are rising US-Iran tensions affecting Federal Reserve policy expectations?

The flare-up in US-Iran tensions and resulting jump in oil prices rekindled inflation concerns, causing money markets to shift their bets toward a Fed interest-rate hike in October instead of December; this shift was reflected in rising Treasury yields—the two-year yield rose as much as five basis points to 4.23%, near its recent peak, and the 10-year yield climbed four basis points to 4.59%, the highest since late May—while Fed officials acknowledged growing concern over inflation in their June meeting minutes and noted that future policy decisions are now 'heavily contingent on the political situation in the Middle East.'

Oil Gains, US Stock Futures Drop on New Strikes: Markets Wrap

Jul 8, 2026

West Texas Intermediate crude surged over 2% after US strikes on Iran threatened Strait of Hormuz shipping, reigniting inflation fears and prompting expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes. Global equities dipped as bond yields rose.

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