Has the oil market reached a 'turning point'?

Shanghai crude oil futures prices surged sharply during this period, directly reflecting China’s return to the demand market on the futures trading floor. Risks in the Strait of Hormuz persist, and supply-side pressure remains difficult to dissipate. Geopolitical risk is another core support for current oil prices. The continued escalation of tensions in the Middle East—particularly shipping threats in the Strait of Hormuz—is having a tangible impact on crude oil supplies to Asian refiners. Amrita Sen noted that oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz briefly rebounded in August, but as tensions flared up again, shipping companies resumed exercising caution. She warned that if cancellations and delays in the Strait of Hormuz persist, Asian refiners will have no choice but to cut refinery runs. According to Shangguan News, armed clashes between Yemen’s Houthi forces and the Saudi-led coalition have intensified across multiple fronts; Saudi Arabia has suffered attacks, and the situation in Yemen has escalated significantly—serving as the immediate trigger for the sharp rise in international oil prices. On September 10, NYMEX WTI crude oil futures surged 6.69% in a single day, closing at $102.48 per barrel; London Brent crude oil futures rose 6.34%, closing at $107.63 per barrel—both hitting their highest levels since May 19 and registering their largest single-day gains in nearly two months. Although prices retreated by about 3% on Friday (September 11) amid rumors of a 'temporary Hormuz agreement', both Brent and WTI posted weekly gains exceeding 9%, marking their second consecutive week with over 9% weekly gains. Refined Products Market: Quieter—but More Dangerous—Pressure If the rise in crude oil prices has already drawn widespread attention, the tightening in the refined products market runs even deeper. According to an International Energy Agency (IEA) report, “The increase in crude oil prices pales in comparison to the surge in refined product prices—the most strained segment of the market today is precisely refined products.” Disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refining facilities, constitute a 'dual shock,' causing refined product supply pressures to far exceed those affecting crude oil itself. The U.S. national average retail diesel price surpassed $6 per gallon for the first time on Thursday. Energy policy advisor Kate Gordon pointed out that fuel costs account for as much as 30% of U.S. food costs: “Farmers and trucking companies are already absorbing substantial cost increases, but as the war continues, they will increasingly pass these price pressures on to consumers.” The IEA stated in its report that the ongoing deadlock in U.S.-Iran negotiations has delayed the normalization of crude oil flows until next year. It forecasts a rebound in oil demand in 2027, “barely offsetting this year’s losses.” The market remains in a deep backwardation structure, indicating traders’ bets that the White House will implement some form of policy intervention to ease oil price pressures. Analysts argue that with diesel prices surging and Strait of Hormuz throughput dropping into single digits, the transmission path of inflationary pressure toward next week’s Federal Reserve interest-rate decision has become unmistakably clear. Meanwhile, OPEC has once again downgraded its 2026 demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day—but physical markets remain unconvinced: Dated Brent spot prices briefly breached $120 per barrel before Friday’s pullback. Domestic Market Linkage: Futures Price Volatility Triggers Regulatory Intervention

Saudi Airport Attack: The Fire in the Middle East Spreads to Global Oil Prices and Supply Chains

In the Middle East: Saudi Airport Attack: The Fire in the Middle East Spreads to Global Oil Prices and Supply Chains On July 7, the Saudi General Authority of Civil Aviation announced that, from July 6 to 7, Abha International Airport in southwestern Saudi Arabia and King Khalid International Airport in the capital Riyadh were attacked successively, resulting in three deaths and 36 injuries. The repercussions of this attack extend far beyond the two airports. As the world’s largest crude oil exporter and the anchor of stability in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia’s airport attacks effectively triggered alarms across energy and shipping sectors. The most direct global impact is on energy security and oil prices. Once instability erupts in the Middle East, markets panic first—oil prices fluctuate upward, pushing up global inflation costs. Central banks worldwide are already raising interest rates to combat inflation; now, this development adds further uncertainty. Second is Red Sea shipping and supply chains. Saudi Arabia’s surrounding waters constitute critical international maritime routes; risk spillover could raise freight rates and delay cargo shipments, further straining an already fragile global trade system. At a deeper level lies geopolitical risk-aversion sentiment: capital flows into gold and the U.S. dollar, while emerging markets and stock markets come under pressure. …………

Oil Holds Biggest Gain in Week as Saudi Attacks Fan Supply Risks

Oct 22, 2026

Oil prices surged to weekly highs amid fears of supply disruptions following Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian facilities. WTI traded near $99 per barrel while Brent settled above $113 as geopolitical tensions threaten crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

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Oil Holds Biggest Gain in Week as Saudi Attacks Fan Supply Risks

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