According to the US EIA, what is the projected level of OECD oil inventories by December, and how does this compare to historical records?

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that total oil inventories in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) will fall to just under 2.3 billion barrels by December, a level not seen since the EIA began keeping records in 2003.

What does the EIA identify as the primary driver behind the sharp drawdown in global oil inventories and the resulting price outlook?

The EIA attributes the rapid inventory drawdown to the loss of 11 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern output due to the Iran war, which has forced markets to deplete stockpiles to meet demand; as a result, the agency forecasts elevated oil prices until global oil flows normalize and inventories are replenished, with Brent crude expected to average $105 per barrel in June and July—well above the $91.60 futures price cited on the report date.

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