International oil prices face a four-pronged assault!

This time, the Houthis did not adopt a rigid, head-on 'fight-to-the-death' strategy. Instead, they first launched a surprise attack on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and seized the port of Mocha to draw the attention of Yemen’s government forces. Then, employing a feint-and-flank tactic, they staged a frontal assault on Taiz’s main defensive line while secretly maneuvering around it—covering over 100 kilometers in just 36 hours—to capture Turbah, the critical southern supply hub for Taiz. By cutting off food, water, and logistical supplies to the defending forces, the Houthis now stand a chance of forcing Taiz’s surrender. According to foreign media reports, several major tribes along the southern border of Taiz and Lahj provinces have already reached agreements with the Houthis: if they lay down their arms, their property will not be confiscated, and past grievances will be forgiven. For Saudi Arabia, this is extremely bad news. Losing Taiz would leave government forces along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait vulnerable to Houthi attacks from elevated terrain—and to pincer assaults from two directions. Losing Taiz could also sever the road link to Aden—the internationally recognized temporary capital of Yemen. Aden, a coastal city of one million people, suffers from severe freshwater shortages and cannot afford desalinated seawater; instead, it relies entirely on wells located in northern valleys, with water piped into the city. Likewise, the fuel needed by Aden’s power plant must be transported by road. This means Aden may soon face total collapse—starvation, water cutoff, blackouts, and fuel shortages. Some might ask: Why not rely on maritime transport? The Houthis possess drones and missiles capable of challenging even the U.S. Navy on near-equal terms—making it easy for them to blockade Aden’s seaport. Moreover, Yemen’s government forces are a fragile coalition of disparate factions—can they really win such an uphill battle? Thus, Saudi Arabia urgently launched a 'comprehensive large-scale counteroffensive', claiming to have mobilized over 100,000 ground troops! On one front, they aim to recapture the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and lift Iran’s dual-strait blockade. On the other, they are advancing toward Turbah and the nearby Habash Mountains to relieve besieged Taiz. The Saudi-led coalition’s air force has gone all-out—conducting more than 150 bombing raids against the Houthis in a single day! Yemen’s government forces claim to have killed 1,860 Houthi fighters and carried out 2,103 'precision strike operations'. Yet the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War stated it has observed no major battlefield gains by government forces. Mocha—the strategic port on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—remains firmly under Houthi control. Taiz remains encircled and is being 'gradually digested' by the Houthis. If the Houthis achieve a decisive victory, will Saudi Arabia deploy its own ground troops? Gulf of Mexico: Hurricane hits—U.S. must cut production! Just as Trump imposed a diesel export ban to pressure the G7 into releasing 100 million barrels of strategic reserves—precisely when global oil prices were being suppressed—a hurricane named 'Isaias' approached the Gulf of Mexico, forcing oil companies operating there to slash output and evacuate personnel. At noon on October 8, data from the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) showed that nearly two-thirds of oil production and 57% of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico had been shut down. Moreover, 14% of U.S. refining capacity lies directly in the storm’s projected path! "This couldn’t have come at a worse time, given that gasoline and diesel inventories are already critically low," said Andy Lipow, president of consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates—meaning "even a brief disruption could have serious consequences." U.S. media speculate that it was precisely this hurricane threat—and dwindling inventories—that prompted Trump to declare he would not launch military action against Iran before the midterm elections. And if the hurricane intensifies further, the impact could worsen! Global oil reserve buffers are nearly exhausted! On October 9, the CEO of Saudi Aramco—the world’s largest integrated petroleum and petrochemical enterprise—stated that global commercial oil inventories currently stand at less than 6 billion barrels, most of which are effectively inaccessible. "The entire system is already stretched thin."

"Isaias" escalates to Category 3 hurricane; nearly three-quarters of crude oil production halted in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico

Hurricane 'Isaias' pushed up crude oil prices along the U.S. Gulf Coast. The U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) reported that the hurricane caused a suspension of approximately 72% of crude oil production in the region. BOEM stated on Friday that producers had suspended about 1.46 million barrels per day of crude oil output—72% of the region’s total crude production. By noon Eastern Time, personnel had been evacuated from 129 offshore platforms, and two dynamically positioned drilling rigs had moved out of the storm’s projected path. As the hurricane approached the U.S. Gulf Coast, BP shut down production at its Thunder Horse and Na Kika platforms and evacuated non-essential staff from its Argos, Atlantis, and Mad Dog platforms. By the time Hurricane 'Isaias' neared the U.S. Gulf Coast, it had intensified into a Category 3 hurricane. This storm disrupted U.S. offshore crude supply, compounding earlier disruptions to global oil trade routes caused by the Iran conflict. Nearshore crude oil prices rise The production contraction was immediately reflected in spot crude prices in the Gulf region. Mars crude is now trading at a premium of about $3 per barrel over WTI—whereas earlier this week it had been trading at a discount. Thunder Horse crude has traded at a premium of more than $4 per barrel over WTI for two consecutive trading days—widening sharply from just $0.75 earlier this week.

Oil Majors Restore US Gulf Output After Hurricane Isaias; Chemical Impacts Assessed

1 day ago

US Gulf oil and gas producers resume operations post-Hurricane Isaias, with major chemical sites like Ascend and Huntsman reporting safe status. Port and rail networks are reopening, though power outages may temporarily impact plastic and chemical demand.

icis

2026-10-12

Oil Majors Restore US Gulf Output After Hurricane Isaias; Chemical Impacts Assessed

Oil Majors Restore US Gulf Output After Hurricane Isaias; Chemical Impacts Assessed

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