Citigroup warns: Diesel exports from the Middle East and Russia are both contracting, potentially creating a global shortfall of 1 million barrels per day this year.

U.S. retail diesel prices have risen to approximately $6.50 per gallon, up from around $3.40 per gallon at the start of the year; both diesel and heating oil prices are nearing their highest levels in 55 years. The diesel crack spread has surged from roughly $25 per barrel at the beginning of the year to $89 per barrel on September 24—while WTI rose by only about $25 per barrel over the same period—indicating that this shock is concentrated primarily at the refined-products level. Notably, the supply shortfall is currently being offset through inventory drawdowns. Global diesel inventories are projected to decline by about 200–250 million barrels this year; however, visible primary inventories have fallen by only 50–70 million barrels, implying that much of the inventory consumption has already occurred at the end-user level. Contraction in Middle Eastern and Russian exports, coupled with refinery output cuts, further widens the gap. Citigroup estimates that Middle Eastern diesel exports may fall by 500,000–1,000,000 barrels per day, while Russian exports could drop by 300,000–600,000 barrels per day. Combined with reduced refinery runs elsewhere, global diesel supply is tightening further. In August alone, unplanned refinery shutdowns worldwide caused refined-product output losses of approximately 3–4 million barrels per day. Export disruptions and refinery cutbacks together have heightened market tightness. Globally disclosed diesel inventories currently stand at about 1 billion barrels, of which roughly 200 million barrels are held by European governments and about 400 million barrels constitute OECD commercial stocks. European government stocks thus represent a critical potential buffer—but the volume that can be rapidly released remains limited. Should diplomatic efforts fail, Citigroup believes European government stocks could be released no later than after the U.S. midterm elections. The U.S. may also consider restricting diesel exports, though a full ban is unlikely; even with export restrictions, large volumes of diesel accumulating along the U.S. Gulf Coast could quickly strain local storage capacity.

Major economic and financial events scheduled between October 5 and October 11, 2026.

2. October 5: Yemen’s Houthi movement claimed attacks on facilities linked to Saudi Aramco, triggering a rise in international oil prices; Brent crude climbed to around $103 per barrel, reflecting increased risk premium for Middle Eastern supply. 3. Around October 5: Russian President Vladimir Putin approved the restructuring and majority sale of UniCredit’s Russian operations to UAE-based investors—a move reflecting financial adjustments by Western banks operating in Russia amid ongoing sanctions. 4. October 5–9: Brazil’s stock market continued its strong performance, with the Ibovespa index surging over 8%–11% for the week—the best weekly gain in years—fueled by optimism surrounding the upcoming presidential runoff election and expectations of improved fiscal discipline. 5. October 9: Hurricane Isaias approached the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, forcing shutdowns of over 70% of Gulf crude production (approximately 1.4–1.5 million barrels per day) and causing major disruptions to natural gas output—tightening short-term energy supply and bolstering oil prices. 6. October 9: U.S. President Donald Trump announced a diesel supply agreement with Russia (immediate delivery of over 300,000 metric tons, with additional volumes to follow); the U.S. Treasury Department temporarily eased relevant sanctions authorizations, leading to a sharp decline in the diesel crack spread and intensifying volatility across global refined-product markets. 7. October 9: A powerful 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck Panama; following inspections, the Panama Canal remained fully operational, temporarily alleviating concerns over global shipping and trade route disruptions and stabilizing market sentiment. 8. October 10: A Houthi missile strike hit King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia—causing significant casualties—and sharply escalated geopolitical risks in the Middle East; international crude oil prices came under upward pressure, with Brent briefly approaching $105 per barrel.

Oil prices climb as traders weigh Saudi supply risk, Russian diesel flow

Oct 13, 2026

Oil prices climbed amid Houthi attack risks on Saudi Aramco, though Russian diesel export expectations limited gains. Brent crude rose to $106.58 per barrel while analysts forecast WTI trading between $90 and $100.

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