Saudi oil exports resume, oil prices fall; Putin's party wins big in parliament—how should we view this?

Welcome to 'Xiao Kao Shijie' — a column covering the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global affairs, humanities, and history! Today, we begin again with developments in the Middle East. 【1.1】As market concerns over geopolitical conflict in the Middle East ease, international oil prices weakened at the start of the new trading week. By close on the 21st, NYMEX WTI crude fell USD 4.52 to USD 95.78 per barrel, down 4.51%; London Brent crude fell USD 3.53 to USD 100.34 per barrel, down 3.4%. TD Securities’ Senior Commodities Strategist Mr. McKay stated that crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz are increasing, and overall crude transport volumes across the Middle East have rebounded to roughly 80% of pre-war levels. Over the past two days, some readers in the comment section questioned U.S. Central Command General Cooper’s claim that thousands of merchant vessels have transited the Strait since hostilities began. It appears General Cooper is a liar—and so too is Mr. McKay of TD Securities. We must absolutely not believe them. Instead, we must believe Iran possesses the full capability to impose a long-term, total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. You tell me WTI and Brent prices have fallen back toward USD 100? Impossible! This is all an illusion manufactured by decadent, corrupt, chronically dishonest capitalism. The true global oil price right now is USD 200—no, USD 300—per barrel! The U.S. imperialists will surely 'bite the dust' sooner or later! Back to normal: Why did international oil prices fall? Primarily due to news suggesting Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline may partially resume operations within days. Bloomberg reported on the 16th that Saudi Arabia plans to restore about half the pipeline’s transport capacity within days. And as of today—the 22nd—Reuters reports that Saudi Arabia has already restarted the East-West Pipeline, albeit at low initial throughput. It seems my earlier criticism of Saudi Arabia for failing to 'hold tightly onto its rice bowl' was somewhat hasty. In fact, Saudi Arabia does have emergency repair teams—and they work quite efficiently. Additionally, Reuters reported on the 21st that on the 20th, Saudi Aramco loaded approximately 14 million barrels of crude onto seven Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) at Ras Tanura port in the Persian Gulf. This figure is enormous: seven VLCCs carrying 14 million barrels—averaging two million barrels per vessel—and these figures derive from actual satellite imagery and vessel-tracking data, not fabricated official Saudi announcements. Reuters interprets this as a sign that Saudi crude exports are partially recovering. Meanwhile, Saudi crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged about 2.9 million barrels per day over the six days ending September 18—far exceeding August’s average of roughly 700,000 barrels per day. Driven by these positive developments, international crude futures prices have declined each of the past four trading days. What makes this especially intriguing is that merely loading 14 million barrels onto VLCCs—before those tankers even set sail—was enough to trigger a drop in international oil prices. What does this signify? Recall: Ras Tanura lies on Saudi Arabia’s eastern coast along the Persian Gulf! This shows that analysts at major trading firms—whose annual internet expenses run into millions of dollars—are more confident than some ordinary readers that this oil can indeed transit the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, it is not only Iran that can manipulate global oil prices via Strait blockades.

## Latest Developments in the Iran Situation (Day 244)

- **09:30**: According to The Wall Street Journal and the Associated Press, Washington has warned Middle Eastern countries to prepare for possible renewed attacks against Iran following the November 3 midterm elections. - **09:45**: Trump claimed the United States did not instigate war with Iran. - **10:00**: Obama stated that war with Iran has made the U.S. 'more vulnerable'. - **10:15**: Analysts noted that although the two wars launched against Iran by the U.S. and Israel exposed serious vulnerabilities in Iran’s intelligence and security apparatus, Tehran has exploited such threats to suppress domestic dissent. - **10:30**: During Thursday’s Asian morning trading session, Brent crude futures fell USD 0.82, or 0.7%, to USD 114.50 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell USD 1.04, or 1.0%, to USD 101.74 per barrel. - **10:45**: The oil spill from the tanker *Hormuz* forced the closure of beaches in the UAE. - **11:00**: EU energy ministers are meeting today in Luxembourg to discuss soaring fuel prices—driven by the wars in Ukraine, Iran, and Yemen—as winter approaches. - **11:00**: A report from Tehran states that Iran is weighing both confrontation and diplomacy over a seven-day period to advance its demands. - **11:45**: As diplomatic efforts aimed at ending the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran appear to be accelerating, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared that Tehran will make no concessions on ending the conflict. - **12:00**: Residents of Gaza refugee camps are preparing for their fourth winter of violent storms and flooding. - **13:15**: U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has dismissed Major General Brett Sylvester. - **13:30**: Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps shot down an MQ-1 drone in airspace east of the Strait of Hormuz. - **13:57**: Israeli settlers attacked journalists in the occupied West Bank. - **14:00**: Hopes for peace have offset growing concerns about war in the Middle East, contributing to falling oil prices. - **14:15**: The U.S.’ top military planner has been relieved of duty, and Trump is reportedly considering launching a new war against Iran. - **14:30**: Analyst Ehsan Al-Hatib stated that Vice President Vance proactively contacted Iran’s top security official, signaling Washington’s desire to avoid further war with Iran. - **14:50**: According to the official WAFA news agency, Israeli forces arrested 14 Palestinians in the occupied West Bank. - **15:00**: The UK Maritime Trade Organization reported that a vessel caught fire near the Strait of Hormuz off Oman. - **15:15**: South Korea is reviewing deployment plans for the *Hormuz*-class missile—including air-based launch options. - **15:30**: A report from Gaza states that Israeli strikes on the war-ravaged Gaza Strip killed at least four Palestinians.

Oil Prices Fall as Peace Hopes Offset Fears of Growing Middle East Conflict

3 days ago

Oil prices fell on Thursday as peace hopes eased fears of Middle East supply disruptions, with Brent dropping to $114.50 and WTI to $101.74. Regional hostilities and EIA inventory data further influenced market sentiment regarding crude availability.

reuters

Oil Prices Fall as Peace Hopes Offset Fears of Growing Middle East Conflict

FAQ