Making a mountain out of a molehill: Lee Jae-myung recalls South Korea’s ambassador to Ukraine; Russian atrocities: Ukrainian public bus attacked, 30 killed

Welcome to 'Xiao Kao Shijie' — a program covering the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global affairs, humanities, and history! Today, we begin with news from the Middle East: 【1.1】Iran’s frequency of attacks on merchant vessels in the Strait has markedly increased: The UK Ministry of Defence reported today that an oil tanker was struck by multiple projectiles approximately 51 nautical miles north of Madinat Ash Shamal, Qatar, resulting in casualties. Judging from the map, this location lies a considerable distance from the Strait of Hormuz — yet Iran is acting with blatant impunity. Reuters reports that attacks on oil tankers, LNG carriers, and LPG carriers in the Strait of Hormuz and its surrounding waters have reached their highest frequency since the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war on February 28. Between last month’s 28th and this month’s 5th, at least 12 attacks targeting petroleum, liquefied natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas tankers were recorded. Meanwhile, hurricanes in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico have forced Shell, Chevron, and others to cut offshore production, temporarily shutting down roughly 25% of crude oil output and 16% of natural gas output in the region. In response to such developments, Brent crude futures surged over 4% on October 8, briefly exceeding $102 per barrel; WTI also approached $92. Yet this price level is not alarmingly high. A Financial Times report explains why numerous tankers continue boldly transiting the Strait of Hormuz: Captains reportedly earn $100,000 per month plus a $50,000 bonus per voyage; ordinary seafarers receive 4–6 times their normal wages during each transit. The report notes that since February 28, at least 93 vessels have been hit, claiming the lives of 24 sailors. Another Bloomberg report states that Syria is set to become a new export corridor for Iraqi crude oil, enabling shipments to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq has requested Syria transport oil by truck to Mediterranean ports, expanding upon Iraq’s existing fuel-oil transportation routes. Overall, although Iran has intensified its vessel attacks, the already highly sensitive global oil market can absorb this negative shock. U.S. military strikes against Iranian southern military targets, U.S. naval and air force escort operations for commercial vessels worldwide, diversified oil-transport initiatives by producing countries, and shipowners’ aggressive use of high salaries as incentives are collectively facilitating greater crude oil exports through the Strait. Current estimates suggest oil throughput via the Strait has rebounded to about 80% of pre-war levels — occasionally even surpassing them. 【1.2】Iran’s escalated attacks on shipping may prompt the U.S. to resume large-scale military operations against Iran: An Axios report states that the Pentagon has directed U.S. Central Command to complete final preparations for a potential large-scale strike against Iran. The report adds that Trump has not yet made a final decision or set a date, but U.S. and Israeli sources indicate airstrikes could occur before the November U.S. midterm elections. The Atlantic also published a similar report, noting officials say Trump aims to demonstrate wartime progress and help lower oil prices ahead of the election. The report expresses concern that a new offensive might involve massive U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and nuclear facilities — potentially triggering Iranian missile retaliation and further oil-price spikes. It also notes that U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations have stalled, and Trump and Netanyahu have held two phone calls recently.

Opening low, closing high. Stress test. Clinical event. Inflation hits new high. Gold hits new high. Scramble for U.S. Treasuries.

From a technical perspective, the prior rally left behind 'three unfulfilled gaps,' making the subsequent correction virtually inevitable. What we’re seeing now is merely a minor stress test following a weak rebound. Even if resistance is breached, a stronger resistance line looms above. Thus, for the Hang Seng Index, cautious bullishness remains the baseline stance. The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,129 points — regaining its 5-day moving average only to lose it again. Candlestick patterns largely formed doji-like shapes, reflecting intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears. A portion of the downward gap remains unfilled below, offering some support. Only around 700 stocks advanced on the Hong Kong exchange, signaling a sharp drop in market sentiment. The Hang Seng Index fell 1%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index declined 0.94%. Three main factors contributed to the Hang Seng’s weakness: I. Global Synchronicity 1. U.S. Equities Overnight, all three major U.S. indices rose, with the Nasdaq hitting another all-time high. During daytime trading, however, all three U.S. index futures turned red — the Nasdaq futures dipping as low as -0.16%. 2. The U.S. Dollar Overnight, the U.S. Dollar Index plunged sharply, falling below both the 102 level and its 5-day moving average. During daytime trading, the Dollar Index rebounded, reclaiming both the 102 level and its 5-day moving average. 3. U.S. Treasuries Overnight, the yield on 2-year U.S. Treasuries declined, slipping below the 4.8% threshold. During daytime trading, the 2-year yield edged slightly higher, rising back above 4.8%. 4. Crude Oil Overnight, Brent crude rebounded, settling above $101 per barrel; WTI also rebounded but had not yet reclaimed $90. During daytime trading, Brent stabilized above $101, and WTI regained $90. 5. Asia-Pacific Markets The Nikkei fell 0.92%; a certain province’s index dipped 0.03%; the KOSPI dropped 1.98%. All Asia-Pacific markets slumped — dragging Hong Kong equities along. II. Oil Price Rebound Storms approaching key U.S. oil-producing regions, coupled with Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, have reignited concerns over supply disruptions. The Yemen-based Houthi movement announced a new round of ballistic-missile and drone strikes against multiple Saudi airports and military installations. U.S. meteorologists forecast that the Gulf of Mexico storm may develop into the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 within two days — threatening a region accounting for 15% of U.S. crude output. Brent crude stabilized above $101; WTI reclaimed $90. III. Clinical Event ArriVent disclosed that furmonertinib’s global Phase III trial failed to meet its primary endpoint. Furmonertinib (stock code: 688578) is developed by Akeso Inc.; this outcome has prompted the market to reassess the overseas clinical prospects and licensing value of Dongda’s innovative oncology drugs. This is not mere sentiment-driven news — it is a hard clinical event. Compounding matters, the innovative drug sector had surged yesterday amid ESMO-related expectations, leading to concentrated profit-taking today — making innovative drugs the top decliners. After-market update: I. Inflation Hits New High The New York Fed released its September Survey of Consumer Expectations on inflation. One-year inflation expectation: expected 3.64%, reported 3.9% — significantly exceeding forecasts and reaching a three-year high.

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Oil prices jump 5% on Middle East tensions and US hurricane threat

Oil prices jump 5% on Middle East tensions and US hurricane threat

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