U.S.-Iran tensions 'on the brink of eruption'—this weekend, 'every bush and tree is on high alert'! Oil prices hit $117 for the first time since April, surging over 10% in a single month.

Tensions in the Middle East have suddenly escalated, pushing international oil prices to a multi-month high this Friday; geopolitical risk premiums are being repriced at a visibly rapid pace. Brent crude peaked at $117.45 per barrel during Friday’s trading session—the first time it has breached that level since April—with a monthly gain exceeding 10% and closing at $116.72. The core driver behind this rally is the market’s sharply heightened expectation that U.S.-Iran conflict will escalate anew following the U.S. midterm elections. On the same day, Trump hinted at the possibility of launching another military operation against Iran while simultaneously signaling that hostilities could be 'quickly concluded.' These two seemingly contradictory statements, issued side-by-side, have left markets increasingly uncertain about the direction of U.S. policy. (Brent Crude Futures Daily Chart) Meanwhile, Iran has repeatedly issued tough signals: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that two super-tankers struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz, collectively carrying over 4.5 million barrels of crude oil. According to a Reuters report, a senior Iranian security official revealed that Iran has drawn up a detailed plan to strike undersea communications cables across the Gulf region—ready for immediate implementation should the U.S. and Israel launch another attack. Bill Campbell, Portfolio Manager at DoubleLine, stated: “You’re entering a weekend of extremely high uncertainty.” The energy market’s panic sentiment has spilled over into broader asset classes. The U.S. five-year breakeven inflation rate rose eight basis points on Friday to 2.47%; the 10-year Treasury yield edged higher to 4.99%; and the S&P 500 index fell 0.5%. Helima Croft, Global Head of Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, remarked: “Oil continues rising because the trajectory points toward near-term military escalation in the Middle East. The slogan ‘it will end quickly’ cannot outweigh actual missile fire.” Bob McNally, President of Rapidan Energy, warned that if the conflict spins out of control and causes major damage to critical oil infrastructure, oil prices could surge rapidly toward $150. Trump’s dual messaging renders policy direction highly uncertain Trump’s statements on Friday were fraught with contradictory tension, making it difficult for markets to form stable expectations. According to an article by Wall Street Insights, citing CCTV News, Trump said at a rally in Florida that the U.S. might again take military action against Iran: “We may launch another small-scale ‘Epic Fury’ operation.” The U.S. Department of Defense had named the U.S.-Israeli military strike against Iran on February 28 this year “Operation Epic Fury.” Trump’s latest remarks signal that, even after nearly eight months of ongoing war, the White House has not ruled out further military action. Yet, according to media reports, Trump told reporters on the South Lawn of the White House the same day that the U.S. could swiftly conclude hostilities with Iran—but immediately followed up with a question: “Do we fight it all the way to the end, or do we just let it gradually fade away?” He also noted that oil is still flowing through the Strait of Hormuz and that the U.S. is “getting everything we want.” These juxtaposed statements reflect a deep contradiction in current U.S. policy toward Iran: on one hand, Trump seeks to compel Iranian concessions through military and economic pressure; on the other, prolonged warfare is driving up energy costs, intensifying domestic political pressure.

Exness: Trump says he no longer wants an Iran deal; U.S. media reports Pentagon preparing for bombing.

During Thursday’s (October 8) Asian trading session, Brent crude futures rose more than 1%, holding above $102 per barrel. As oil prices climbed, the latest developments in U.S.-Iran relations once again became the focal point for markets. U.S. President Trump stated on Wednesday that he no longer seeks a deal with Iran. Earlier reports indicated that the U.S. military is preparing for possible military action against Iran, with the timing potentially aligned ahead of elections in the Middle East. The U.S. may resume large-scale military operations—reports suggest such operations could include “massive bombing” According to related reports, the U.S. president and his national security team have begun discussions regarding the resumption of large-scale military operations within the coming weeks. The reports indicate that any renewed military campaign could involve “massive bombing” targeting Iranian energy facilities, infrastructure, and nuclear sites—and note that such military action could influence the outcome of the upcoming midterm elections. This report has further intensified geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, bolstering the risk premium embedded in oil prices. Trump’s approval rating hits historic low amid soaring gasoline and diesel prices Trump’s approval rating has plunged to a historic low, driven by cost-of-living pressures stemming from sharply rising gasoline and diesel prices. Such political pressure may push Trump toward a harder line on Iran to divert domestic attention from economic concerns. Ahead of the midterm elections, Trump faces fierce competition in agricultural states, where diesel prices have hit record highs—imposing heavy burdens on truck drivers and farmers—thus providing a political motive for adopting a tougher stance toward Iran. Iranian officials reject Trump’s claim that “nobody knows who runs Iran” Earlier this week, Trump claimed that Washington’s biggest problem in negotiating an end to the conflict is that “nobody knows who actually runs Iran.” Iranian officials rejected this statement, asserting that “the reality is precisely the opposite.” Bagheri, Spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated: “U.S. officials’ positions are self-contradictory, and their signals are chaotic and unclear.”

Oil Rises Nearly 1% Amid Escalating US-Iran Strikes

Sep 1, 2026

Oil prices rose nearly 1% as tensions escalated between the U.S. and Iran, raising supply disruption concerns in the Middle East and driving Brent and WTI futures higher.

reuters

Oil Rises Nearly 1% Amid Escalating US-Iran Strikes

FAQ