Oil prices, gas prices, and freight rates are all rising simultaneously, ushering the global energy market into a new phase of heightened tension.

Reports regarding the resumption of crude oil flows through the Persian Gulf have been the primary factor restraining oil prices. Recent data indicate that average daily outflows in early August ranged between 6 million and 8 million barrels per day. Some firms, such as Rystad Energy, estimate the average daily flow was even higher—between 8 million and 9 million barrels per day as of late August. However, this was before hostilities resumed between U.S. and Iranian forces; afterward, daily outbound volumes plummeted to under 2 million barrels. Earlier this week, Reuters cited Rystad Energy data indicating a moving average of approximately 4 million to 5 million barrels per day. Reuters also reported, citing Kpler, that no Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have departed the Strait since September 2. Meanwhile, tensions escalated further this week: the U.S. claimed it had destroyed five Iranian tankers, while Iran launched an attack on a U.S. military base in Jordan. On Wednesday, Brent crude surged above USD 100 per barrel, as neither side showed willingness to de-escalate. Yet the most pessimistic forecasts for oil prices have not yet materialized—largely because Middle Eastern oil producers have found alternative routes to export crude overseas. In most cases, these alternatives involve pipelines delivering oil to ports outside the Strait of Hormuz. For the UAE, it is the pipeline to Fujairah Port, located near the Strait; Iraq uses pipelines to Turkey and the Mediterranean coast; and Saudi Arabia employs its East–West Pipeline (Petroline) to reverse-flow crude to Yanbu Port on the Red Sea—near areas controlled by Yemen’s Houthi militants. The Houthis joined the conflict earlier this year, targeting Saudi vessels and energy infrastructure; the latest attack occurred this week against the Jizan refinery. Other refineries across the Arabian Peninsula have also been struck by Iranian forces. Although Brent crude has now breached USD 100 per barrel, the key question is whether prices can sustain this level—or even surge significantly higher. The longer the war persists, the weaker the downward pressure on prices becomes, primarily because the world is drawing down oil inventories to buffer the price shock—but those inventories are finite. In its latest monthly Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) noted that, as of July, approximately 8.3 million barrels per day of oil production in the Middle East remained offline. The agency also reported that global oil inventories declined by 69 million barrels in July—following a sustained drawdown averaging 2.7 million barrels per day. As the Middle East conflict continues, this downward trend will persist, further pushing up oil prices. Many pessimistic observers frequently point out that global oil reserves and production capacity remain ample—hence any signs of de-escalation, let alone the June ceasefire agreement, exert downward pressure on oil prices. Nonetheless, over the past few weeks, the trend in international crude benchmarks has been unmistakable: prices have indeed fallen—but the magnitude of decline has steadily narrowed. Since September 2025, Brent crude has risen nearly USD 40 per barrel; WTI has climbed over USD 30 per barrel—based solely on futures market data—while spot market prices are even higher.

Wave-Particle Trading Academy | Daily Market Commentary — October 9, 2026: Undercurrents in the Middle East Situation, and Technical Recap of Gold, Crude Oil, and EUR/USD

Recent Price Behavior Price has risen markedly amid supply disruptions caused by hurricanes. On one hand, hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico have halted crude production, while shipping risks in the Middle East have elevated risk premiums; on the other hand, news of U.S.–Iran de-escalation has capped upside potential for long positions—making price action highly sensitive to headlines. Hurricane landfalls in the Gulf of Mexico led to widespread shutdowns of U.S. crude output, generating short-term fundamental support from reduced supply. Persistent shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—and intensified U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude—continue to underpin geopolitical risk premiums. Yet Trump’s statement that he would not strike Iran before the midterm elections signaled a marginal cooling in geopolitical risk expectations; additionally, the IEA’s prior release of strategic petroleum reserves increased expectations of future supply in the market. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s high-interest-rate environment is dampening global economic outlooks, leading to relatively weak expectations for end-user demand for crude oil. Historical statistical data show that price has found some support in the USD 90.51–87.77 per barrel range. Historically Notable Price Levels (Unit: USD/barrel) Type Reference Level Near USD 92.02 A zone repeatedly tested in recent price action Near USD 90.51, 89.46, and 87.77 Zones where price historically stabilized upon reaching Near USD 93.89, 94.94, and 96.63 Zones where price historically encountered resistance Review of Recent Influencing Factors ▲ Factors Supporting Prices (Already Materialized) 1. Hurricane-induced supply disruption: Hurricane landfalls in the Gulf of Mexico triggered widespread shutdowns of U.S. crude production, delivering short-term fundamental support via reduced supply. 2. Geopolitical risk: Ongoing shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and intensified U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude continue to support geopolitical risk premiums. 3. Inventory data: U.S. crude inventories have continued declining, providing underlying support on the physical market. 4. Potential for renewed geopolitical volatility: Repeated setbacks in U.S.–Iran negotiations mean that any resurgence in tensions could rapidly boost oil’s safe-haven premium. ▼ Factors Pressuring Prices (Already Materialized) 1. De-escalation expectations: Trump’s statement that he would not strike Iran before the midterm elections cooled geopolitical risk expectations, capping oil’s upside potential. 2. Reserve releases: The IEA’s prior release of strategic petroleum reserves increased expectations of future market supply. 3. Demand headwinds: The Fed’s high-interest-rate environment is suppressing global growth outlooks, resulting in relatively weak expectations for end-user crude demand. 4. Technical factors: Rapid short-term gains have accumulated substantial long-position profits, meaning heavy selling pressure could emerge at any time near current highs. Reference Scenarios (For Technical Discussion Only—Not Investment Advice) Scenario Zone to Watch Risk-Control Level Key Reference Level Reference Scenario If price rallies to the USD 94.00–94.30 zone and shows signs of resistance, monitor price behavior there If price breaks above ~USD 96.00 Monitor price behavior in the prior ~USD 91.30–90.00 zone ⚠️ The above “Reference Scenarios” constitute academic discussion only of technical analysis methodology. All referenced levels derive from historical statistical data and do not constitute predictions of future market movements, nor do they constitute investment advice or trading guidance of any kind. Uncertainties remain regarding developments in the Middle East and hurricane activity—investors must fully assess associated risks and make independent decisions. III. EUR/USD — Technical Recap

Oil Set for Weekly Gain With Focus on Middle East, IEA Release

13 hours ago

Oil prices rose for a second week amid Middle East supply risks following a ship strike in the Strait of Hormuz, while the IEA pledged to release outstanding emergency reserves. WTI gained over 6% as US crude inventories dropped significantly.

bloomberg

2026-06-17

Energy Insider: International Oil Prices Break Below $80; Construction Begins on World's Largest Single-Unit Thermal Storage CSP Plant

2026-10-15

Oil Set for Weekly Gain With Focus on Middle East, IEA Release

Oil Set for Weekly Gain With Focus on Middle East, IEA Release

FAQ