Halfway through the holiday—why has the outside world suddenly tightened up like this?

Domestic passenger flow data is staggering: according to the Ministry of Transport, on October 3rd, the total cross-regional mobility across society hit 303.568 million person-trips. Streets are packed with people; WeChat Moments are flooded with photos of local delicacies, scenic mountains and rivers—and traffic jams. Meanwhile, China’s A-share market sits quietly on holiday. On the last trading day before the holiday—September 30th—the Shanghai Composite closed at 3,842.19 points, up 0.31%, with turnover of ¥679.4 billion. The Shenzhen Component Index stood at 12,887.62 points, down 0.11%, with turnover of ¥758.6 billion. The ChiNext Index closed at 3,135.28 points, down 0.23%, with turnover of ¥366.2 billion. The CSI 300 rose 0.29%, while the STAR 50 Index fell 2.51%. Total turnover across both exchanges amounted to approximately ¥1.44 trillion. The market held steadily above the 3,800-point level—delivering a relatively reassuring ‘holiday red envelope’ to investors. Many investors haven’t even opened their stock-trading apps these past few days, finally enjoying a peaceful, quiet break of seven or eight days. But if tonight you lift your eyes from WeChat Moments and glance at tonight’s global capital markets roundup, you might pause in surprise. The outside world’s nerves are taut—as if stretched to the breaking point. First, the Middle East: the smell of gunpowder is practically oozing out of your screen. Near the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani declared that the Strait will remain closed until certain conditions are met. Shortly after, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Office reported that an oil tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile in the waterway, damaging its engine room—though fortunately, all crew members were unharmed. Iran’s Foreign Ministry also responded, stating it had conveyed its position on the ‘seven-day proposal’ to the U.S. via mediators. While Washington’s proposal focuses narrowly on nuclear issues, Tehran insists the priority must be reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides talk past each other—no common ground has been found. Elsewhere, the Yemen front has fully erupted. The Houthis claim Saudi airstrikes hit Al-Jawf Governorate in Yemen; in retaliation, they launched missile strikes against Saudi Aramco’s oil refinery—sending thick black smoke billowing into the sky. Riyadh is now reportedly planning a large-scale counteroffensive. With tensions flaring simultaneously along both the Iranian and Yemeni fronts, the world’s most critical oil-transport artery stands perilously close to disruption. Although OPEC+ has tentatively agreed to hold November oil output targets steady, no one feels confident amid daily escalations of physical conflict. Even the G7 is already discussing whether to release strategic petroleum reserves to offset supply shocks. Once geopolitical flames ignite, oil prices and shipping markets instantly go on high alert. Even more nerve-wracking is next week’s macroeconomic calendar. Not only will the Federal Reserve release its meeting minutes—directly signaling whether it will hike rates in December—but the U.S. Treasury will also conduct a massive auction of $61 billion worth of combined 10-year and 30-year Treasury notes. Many investors may not grasp just how significant U.S. Treasury yields are. This week, the 10-year Treasury yield surged to its highest level since 2002. Money has become extraordinarily expensive; borrowing costs have soared to alarming levels. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen rushed to calm markets, arguing this is a global phenomenon—and even took time to rebut claims of an AI bubble. But Wall Street remains unconvinced. Bank of America recently issued a stark warning: today’s AI-related trades have become “the single most critical line of defense” for the entire U.S. Treasury market.

## Latest Developments: Iran Situation (Day 219)

- **14:30**: The Israeli military stated that two soldiers were injured in southern Lebanon due to an “operational accident.” - **14:35**: Iran’s chief negotiator said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the U.S. meets relevant conditions. - **14:40**: The Speaker of Iran’s Parliament stated Iran would “fight while negotiating.” - **14:45**: Yemeni forces backed by Saudi Arabia claimed to have killed 700 Houthi fighters within 24 hours. - **15:00**: The Palestinian news agency WAFA reported that Israeli forces arrested a Palestinian journalist during a raid in the West Bank. - **15:10**: An Israeli airstrike in Gaza killed one person and wounded ten. - **15:20**: Iran’s Foreign Minister stated that Iran takes diplomacy “seriously”—and self-defense “seriously” as well. - **15:30**: According to the Iraqi News Agency, Iraqi and Turkish ministers discussed increasing oil exports via the Ceyhan pipeline. - **15:40**: Iran told the U.S. that this war has “no military solution.” - **15:43**: At a press conference, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson addressed the war launched by the U.S. Tehran used the UN General Assembly to convey its position to world leaders: ending the ongoing seven-month war waged by the U.S. and Israel. No country should permit its territory to be used for attacks against Iran. The top issue currently under discussion in Iran is the reopening of the vital Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s supreme leadership has not yet discussed the return of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors to Iran. - **15:50**: Local media reported that coalition aircraft led by Saudi Arabia struck a Houthi gathering in the al-Sharajah area of Jabal Habashi, west of Taiz, Yemen. - **16:20**: Six months into the Iran conflict, a U.S. aircraft carrier arrived in Phuket, Thailand. - **16:30**: Shipping monitors from the UK Maritime Trade Operations unit reported that a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an “unidentified projectile.” - **16:40**: News reports indicated OPEC+ plans to maintain its November oil production target unchanged. - **16:50**: Al Jazeera reported that Israeli raids and demolitions in Gaza left multiple Palestinians injured. - **17:00**: A reporter in Tehran stated that Tehran and Washington hold “radically different priorities” in negotiations. - **17:015**: As the conflict continues, Iran and the U.S. have engaged in a cognitive war (coverage, analysis, and commentary by journalists, scholars, and experts). - **17:30**: Israeli settlers attacked homes and set cars on fire in the occupied West Bank. - **17:40**: The Palestinian Red Crescent Society reported that a Palestinian man was killed by Israeli forces in the occupied West Bank. - **17:50**: Iran’s Foreign Minister rejected U.S. claims that Iranian diplomats were “expelled” after refusing to leave the U.S. following the September UN General Assembly. - **18:00**: A source at Nasser Medical Complex told Al Jazeera that one person was killed near Khan Younis in Gaza by Israeli artillery fire.

OPEC+ Agrees in Principle to Keep November Oil Output Targets Steady

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OPEC+ agreed in principle to maintain November oil output targets despite Middle East export disruptions. Core members pump below prewar levels, pushing capacity review decisions to 2027.

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