Why did OPEC+ approve a fourth oil output quota hike despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed and key members unable to pump more?

OPEC+ approved the fourth consecutive monthly output quota increase — 188,000 bpd from July — as part of the planned, gradual unwinding of its 1.65 million bpd production cut agreed in 2023; although the Strait of Hormuz closure has caused a severe supply crisis and collapsed actual group output (from 42.77 million bpd in February to 33.19 million bpd in April), the quota hikes reflect policy continuity by the seven core decision-making members (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman), who are now responsible for managing the remaining 567,000 bpd of the original cut after the UAE’s exit on May 1.

What is the practical impact of OPEC+ raising output targets while actual production has sharply declined?

The practical impact is that the output target increases have little real-world effect: actual OPEC+ production collapsed from 42.77 million barrels per day (bpd) in February to 33.19 million bpd in April due to export cuts by Gulf members stemming from the Strait of Hormuz closure, meaning the higher quotas do not translate into increased supply; as analyst Jorge Leon noted, 'An OPEC+ production increase means very little while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed,' and the market could swing rapidly from shortage fears to surplus fears once the strait reopens.

OPEC+ approves fourth oil output quota hike since Hormuz closure

Jun 7, 2026

OPEC+ approved a 188,000 bpd oil output increase for July amidst geopolitical tensions and the UAE's departure, though actual production remains constrained by the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

reuters

2026-04-22

OPEC Downgrades Q2 Global Oil Demand Forecast

2026-04-29

OPEC+ Likely to Agree Another Oil Output Hike Without UAE, Sources Say

2026-04-29

Russia says OPEC+ will continue after UAE exit, no price war expected

2026-04-30

OPEC+ Delegates Expect Another Symbolic Supply Hike Without UAE

2026-05-02

OPEC+ Agrees in Principle on Small Output Hike