Why did OPEC cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast, and what is the new figure?

OPEC cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast due to the impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions—specifically, the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused by Middle East conflict—which disrupted oil transportation, spiked fuel prices, and weighed on demand. The organization revised its forecast downward to a growth of 970,000 barrels per day (bpd), marking the second consecutive monthly reduction after previously projecting 1,170,000 bpd.

How does OPEC’s revised outlook for 2027 oil demand compare to its prior estimate, and what does it attribute this change to?

OPEC raised its 2027 global oil demand growth forecast to 1,730,000 bpd—an increase of 190,000 bpd from its previous estimate—citing an expected rebound in consumption following the anticipated easing of near-term disruptions, despite continued geopolitical stress; the report notes that 'even with persistent geopolitical tensions, global economic resilience will hold through the first half of 2026', supporting the upward revision for the following year.

OPEC Cuts Annual Oil Demand Forecast Again

Jun 16, 2026

OPEC reduced its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 970,000 barrels per day amidst Middle East supply disruptions. OPEC+ May production also fell as Iranian exports dropped due to US naval blockades.

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