What is the likely size of OPEC+'s upcoming oil output quota hike, and why is it smaller than last month's increase?

OPEC+ is likely to agree on an oil output quota hike of around 188,000 barrels per day, which is similar to last month's hike of 206,000 bpd minus the share of the United Arab Emirates, which exits the group from May 1.

Which countries will participate in the OPEC+ production decision meeting on Sunday, and how has the UAE's exit affected the group's decision-making structure?

The seven members meeting on Sunday are Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman; the UAE’s departure means that, although OPEC+ includes 21 members including Iran, only these seven plus the UAE had been involved in recent monthly production decisions — so the UAE’s exit has effectively reduced the core decision-making group to seven nations.

OPEC+ Likely to Agree Another Oil Output Hike Without UAE, Sources Say

Apr 29, 2026

OPEC+ is expected to approve an additional 188,000 barrels per day oil output quota at its upcoming meeting, excluding the UAE following its departure. This signals a business-as-usual approach despite reduced export capacity from key members due to regional conflicts.

reuters

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