What is OPEC+ expected to decide about oil output policy at its upcoming Sunday meeting, and why?

OPEC+ is likely to keep its oil output policy unchanged for October, as the group completes the unwinding of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023; this decision comes amid reduced market influence due to disruptions in oil exports from Iran and Ukraine, and as the group shifts focus toward negotiating 2027 production baselines.

Why has actual OPEC+ oil output lagged behind planned quota increases this year?

Actual output has lagged planned quota increases because wars in Iran and Ukraine have disrupted oil exports from the Gulf, Russia, and Kazakhstan—despite monthly production quota hikes by seven core OPEC+ members including Saudi Arabia and Russia.

OPEC+ Likely to Keep Oil Output Policy Unchanged on Sunday, Sources Say

Sep 2, 2026

OPEC+ is set to maintain its oil output policy at Sunday's meeting while completing a production cut rollback. The group will focus on 2027 quota negotiations amid geopolitical disruptions affecting global supply.

reuters

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