What is the expected July output target increase for the seven core OPEC+ members, and how does it relate to the UAE's exit?

The seven core OPEC+ members are expected to raise their collective output target by about 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) for July — the same amount agreed for June, which was adjusted down from 206,000 bpd to account for the United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC+ effective May 1. This adjustment reflects the recalibration of quotas following the UAE’s departure after nearly 60 years as an OPEC member.

How much of the original 1.65 million bpd production cut will remain unwound by July, and what does this imply for the timeline to fully restore output?

By July, the seven OPEC+ members will have returned approximately 567,000 bpd of the original 1.65 million bpd production cut agreed in 2023 to the market, factoring in the UAE’s exit. If monthly hikes of about 188,000 bpd continue in August and September, the remainder of the cut would be fully unwound by the end of September.

OPEC+ likely to raise July oil output target despite Hormuz disruption, sources say

Jun 1, 2026

OPEC+ is expected to approve a July oil output increase of approximately 188,000 barrels per day, continuing their gradual production cut unwind despite logistical challenges in the Strait of Hormuz and the UAE's departure.

reuters

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