What is the likely output target increase for the seven core OPEC+ members in September, and how does it fit into their broader production adjustment plan?

The seven core OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman — are likely to raise their collective output target by about 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) for September, matching the monthly increases implemented for June, July, and August. This increment is part of a phased rollback of the 1.65 million bpd supply cut agreed upon in 2023; cumulative hikes from April through August total 958,000 bpd, and the additional 188,000 bpd in September will fully unwind that original cut, accounting for the United Arab Emirates’ exit from OPEC+ in May.

Why has OPEC+ been unable to meet its output targets despite raising them, and what recent events have intensified supply disruptions?

OPEC+ output is currently far below its official quotas due to disruptions caused by the Iran war, which has hindered Gulf members’ ability to pump and export oil. In June, OPEC+ pumped 36.28 million bpd — down sharply from nearly 43 million bpd in February before the war began. Recent escalations include the collapse of a preliminary U.S.-Iran peace agreement, which had enabled increased shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea, disrupting the main Gulf bypass for Saudi exports.

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