October 5, 2026 Financial Morning Brief — Midpoint of the National Day Holiday Has Passed

The National Day holiday is still ongoing, but we have already passed its midpoint. Historically, while we take time off, overseas markets remain highly active; this year’s National Day holiday, however, feels comparatively subdued—raising concerns about a potential ‘October crisis’. I. Key International News 1. On October 4 (local time), OPEC+ held a meeting and decided to maintain unchanged the crude oil production quotas for November, keeping output levels steady without further cuts or increases. Following the announcement, international oil prices showed little volatility. The market’s prior expectation of production cuts failed to materialize, and institutions broadly assess that the short-term supply-demand balance in the crude oil market will remain stable for now, though geopolitical tensions will continue to exert upward pressure on price elasticity. 2. On the evening of October 4, preliminary vote-counting results from Brazil’s first-round presidential election were released: no candidate secured an absolute majority. Flávio Bolsonaro—the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro—and incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva advanced to the runoff, scheduled for October 25. This outcome defied many pre-election polls, prompting market concerns over Brazil’s future fiscal policy direction and triggering minor volatility across Latin American assets. II. Key Domestic News 1. Data released on October 4 shows that total box office revenue (including presales) for the 2026 National Day holiday period (October 1–7) has surpassed RMB 700 million. Box office consumption continues its recovery trend, with top-tier films contributing the bulk of revenues. Holiday-related cultural tourism sector data remains under sustained investor scrutiny. Meanwhile, Hainan’s duty-free sales for travelers departing the island reached RMB 358 million over the first three days of the holiday—a rise both in foot traffic and transaction value year-on-year—demonstrating continued vitality in offline consumption. 2. According to a CCTV report on October 4, China’s first offshore carbon-injection-for-gas-enhancement demonstration project—the Dongfang 1-1 Gas Field Central Platform—has completed main construction and entered commissioning phase. Upon operation, the project will sequester over one million tons of CO₂ annually beneath the seabed, serving as a benchmark offshore CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage) initiative. It benefits related industrial chains—including oil & gas and carbon capture—and represents a significant milestone in China’s energy transition. III. Listed Company Updates 1. Longsys announced on October 4 via the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that the stabilization period for its H-share global offering concluded on October 3. The stabilization agent purchased a total of 4.4984 million H-shares in the market. The underwriters did not exercise the over-allotment option, which has now lapsed. Consequently, the company will issue no additional H-shares, and its public float continues to meet regulatory requirements.

Two G7 Meetings Fail to Ease Persistent Tensions in the Global Oil Market

Statement by the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) on the IEA Governing Board Meeting of October 7, 2026 October 7, 2026 At today’s meeting, IEA member governments expressed support for accelerating the release of oil reserves announced under the March 2026 collective action, aiming for completion as soon as possible. Given current tightness in the diesel market, IEA members also endorsed prioritizing diesel stock releases wherever feasible. Participants highly commended the IEA’s response to the energy implications of the Strait of Hormuz crisis. They reaffirmed their commitment to implementing the March 2026 collective action and underscored the critical role played by the IEA Secretariat in continuously monitoring progress and delivering up-to-date market analysis. Participants welcomed the recent G7 leaders’ statement on global energy security and market stability—particularly its emphasis on the importance of free energy trade flows. To date, approximately 325 million barrels of oil have been released under the March 2026 collective action, with some countries exceeding their initial commitments. If all remaining pledged but yet-unreleased stocks under this action are fully drawn down, an additional ~100 million barrels would enter the market. IEA member governments still hold substantial public emergency oil reserves—totaling roughly 1.1 billion barrels—including over 200 million barrels of diesel. The IEA stands ready to release further such reserves should market conditions warrant. The IEA Secretariat will continue close collaboration with member governments to monitor the ongoing implementation of the March 2026 collective action. IEA members have agreed to further assess and review the current situation at next week’s regular meeting of the IEA Governing Board. On March 11, 2026—shortly after oil prices surged globally following the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war—the G7 leaders convened an emergency telephone summit, following finance ministers’ (March 9) and energy ministers’ (March 10) meetings. They decided on the IEA’s sixth-ever coordinated oil reserve release—and its largest to date—at 400 million barrels. Today’s G7 video summit marks the second such dedicated oil-market meeting in 2026. That two specialized oil-market summits have been held within less than seven months underscores just how severe the tension in global oil markets—especially among these nations—has become. OPEC+ and the G7 Maintain Output Levels to Sustain Global Oil Market Stability On October 4, 2026, the OPEC+ ‘G7’—comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—held its routine monthly meeting and decided to keep production quotas unchanged for November 2026. Below is our translation of the official decision, based on materials published on the OPEC website: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman Reaffirm Their Commitment to Market Stability The OPEC+ ‘G7’—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—which previously announced voluntary additional production cuts in April and November 2023, held an online meeting on October 4, 2026, to assess global market conditions and outlook.

OPEC+ Maintains November Production Quotas Unchanged

Oct 9, 2026

OPEC+ major producers kept November output quotas at 31.01 million barrels per day, marking the second consecutive month of frozen targets. Analysts note market tightness persists as actual production remains significantly below quota levels.

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2026-04-22

OPEC Downgrades Q2 Global Oil Demand Forecast

2026-04-29

OPEC+ Likely to Agree Another Oil Output Hike Without UAE, Sources Say

2026-04-29

Russia says OPEC+ will continue after UAE exit, no price war expected

2026-04-30

OPEC+ Delegates Expect Another Symbolic Supply Hike Without UAE

2026-05-02

OPEC+ Agrees in Principle on Small Output Hike