According to OPEC's 2026 Global Oil Outlook, when is global oil demand expected to peak, and what key factors support this projection?

OPEC states that 'there are no signs that oil demand will peak before 2050'. This projection is supported by several key factors outlined in the report: rising demand from India, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America; policy shifts in the U.S. and Europe—such as the Trump administration's slowdown in renewable energy and electric vehicle support, and changes to fuel efficiency standards; and a global policy emphasis on energy security and affordability, which is reshaping energy strategies and sustaining oil demand over the medium to long term.

What does OPEC project for global oil demand in 2030 and 2050, and how do these figures compare to current levels and prior forecasts?

OPEC projects global oil demand will rise to '113.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2030', up from '105.1 mb/d in 2025', and further increase to '124 mb/d by 2050'—a revision upward from last year’s forecast of '122.9 mb/d'. These figures reflect both stronger-than-expected growth in emerging markets and adjustments due to evolving energy policies in major economies, particularly the U.S. and Europe.

OPEC: Oil Demand Peak Unlikely Before 2050

Jun 26, 2026

OPEC projects global oil demand will not peak before 2050, rising to 124 million barrels daily. Policy shifts and emerging market growth are expected to drive $17.7 trillion in industry investment.

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