What is OPEC+'s current plan for restoring oil production quotas, and by when do they aim to complete it?

OPEC+ plans to complete the restoration of a 1.65 million barrels per day supply cutback—originally imposed in 2023—by the end of September through three more monthly quota hikes, having already formally restored about two-thirds of that amount; however, these increases are largely symbolic and theoretical, as actual output cannot be raised due to war-related disruptions blocking exports from the Persian Gulf, particularly via the Strait of Hormuz.

Why are OPEC+'s recent production quota increases described as 'modest and theoretical', and what real-world constraints prevent their implementation?

The quota increases are described as 'modest and theoretical' because major members—including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and the UAE—have suffered severe output losses due to the ongoing war, with Saudi Arabia’s production falling to 6.3 million barrels per day (the lowest since 1990), Kuwait’s dropping to just a quarter of pre-war levels, and the Strait of Hormuz effectively blocked, preventing export of newly allocated volumes; thus, the agreed-upon hikes—such as the 188,000 barrels per day increase ratified for June—cannot be physically realized.

OPEC+ Plans to Complete Series of Quota Hikes, Delegates Say

May 14, 2026

OPEC+ delegates plan to complete oil quota hikes by September despite the Iran war blocking exports and UAE's departure. Production targets remain theoretical as major members face output losses, while the alliance reviews capacity for 2027.

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