OPEC raises its forecast for global oil demand

Specifically, OPEC has raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2023 to 103 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 2.7 million bpd from 2022 and 1.4 million bpd higher than its previous forecast. It has also revised upward its medium-term crude demand outlook, raising its projected demand for 2027 to 107 million bpd. OPEC stated that global crude demand growth will continue to slow amid weakening global demand and accelerated energy transitions in Western countries, approaching a peak within the next decade. Thereafter, global crude demand will enter a relatively prolonged period of stability. Accordingly, OPEC has also raised its estimate for the timing of peak oil demand, now forecasting it will occur around 2040, reaching approximately 110 million bpd. The report highlights a divergence in oil demand between developed and developing countries. OPEC expects demand in developed countries to decline going forward, while demand in developing countries—driven by population growth and economic prosperity—is projected to rise more robustly than previously anticipated. Following OPEC’s upward revision of global oil demand expectations, international crude futures prices posted notable gains: both U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and London Brent crude futures rose significantly. As of the close of trading the day after the report’s release, WTI futures for December delivery rose $1.84 to settle at $88.37 per barrel, up 2.13%; Brent futures for January 2023 rose $1.84 to settle at $94.65 per barrel, up 1.98%.

Crude Oil Research Report: Markets Await Developments in the Middle East; WTI Price Breaks Above $85

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased. Net long positions decreased. U.S. oil rig count increased. According to data released by Baker Hughes, a GE oilfield services company, the total U.S. active oil and gas rig count rose by five to 593 for the week ending August 14—the highest level since March 2025. Baker Hughes reported that the U.S. oil-directed rig count rose by one to 455—the highest since May 2025; the natural gas-directed rig count rose by four to 128—the highest since May 2026; and rigs classified under ‘other’ remained unchanged at 10. Mainstream institutions’ supply-demand forecasts for the crude market: Supply side EIA: Projects global oil production in 2026 at 100.8 million bpd, down from its prior forecast of 101.9 million bpd. OPEC: Data shows OPEC’s crude output rose by 1.66 million bpd to 23.6 million bpd in July; OPEC+ output rose by 1.4 million bpd to 37.65 million bpd. IEA: Global oil supply rose by ~2.4 million bpd month-on-month to ~101.5 million bpd in July, though still ~6.3 million bpd below year-ago levels. Demand side EIA: Projects global oil demand in 2026 at 102.7 million bpd, down slightly from its prior forecast of 102.8 million bpd. OPEC: Raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2027 to ~2.16 million bpd, up from ~1.94 million bpd previously. IEA: Forecasts global oil demand in 2026 will decline by ~1.6 million bpd, further lowering its prior month’s estimate by ~510,000 bpd. Chapter IV: Outlook for Crude Futures Market Trends Market outlook for next week This week (August 13–19), crude prices fluctuated overall, influenced by geopolitical developments and logistical conditions in the Middle East. As of August 19, WTI crude futures settled at $85.83 per barrel—up $4.58 (5.64%) from the August 13 settlement price of $81.25 per barrel. With the expiration of the 60-day negotiation window stipulated in the U.S.–Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), markets are closely watching how the Middle Eastern geopolitical situation evolves. U.S.–Iran MoU expiration: With the 60-day negotiation window expired, the U.S. has indicated it does not currently seek to extend the MoU with Iran, and no new round of negotiations has commenced. Third-party diplomatic coordination: Third countries continue diplomatic outreach. Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that current coordination efforts focus on de-escalating tensions, ensuring freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and restoring dialogue mechanisms. Maritime passage status: Iran and Oman are maintaining technical-level communication regarding establishing new maritime transit routes. Commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted. According to data compiled by JLC (http://315i.com), three commercial vessels transited the strait within the 24 hours ending August 17. Fundamental considerations: The crude market continues to monitor developments in Middle Eastern geopolitics and progress toward restoring normal passage through key shipping lanes. Meanwhile, several international energy agencies have recently adjusted their 2026 global crude demand forecasts, prompting widespread market vigilance.

OPEC Raises 2027 Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast

17 hours ago

OPEC raised its 2027 global oil demand growth forecast for the sixth consecutive month while lowering the 2026 projection, expecting a daily increase of 2.55 million barrels in 2027.

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2026-10-14

OPEC Raises 2027 Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast

OPEC Raises 2027 Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast

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