2025 Commodity Review: Frenzied Gold and Silver, Surging Copper and Lithium, Disappointing Crude Oil

Amid the collective strength of global industrial metals in 2025, copper stood out most prominently—rising nearly 40% for the year, making it the top performer among the six base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Copper prices repeatedly hit new highs, briefly surging to a record $12,960 per tonne. The market’s trading structure underwent significant change: to circumvent potential trade barriers, traders rushed to ship physical copper to the United States—causing a sharp tightening of spot supply across major markets outside the U.S. and markedly amplifying price volatility. Analysis indicates that copper’s rally has transcended purely cyclical drivers and is now underpinned by robust macroeconomic and structural support. A key indicator shows that the number of gold ounces required to purchase one tonne of copper has fallen to a historic low. This implies that the deep-rooted forces fueling the current gold bull market—such as central banks’ pivot toward monetary easing, the AI-driven surge in tech capital expenditures, and strategic stockpiling driven by supply-chain security concerns—are also transmitting into the copper market, potentially sustaining its upward momentum into 2026. Other industrial metals also posted broad gains. Aluminum rose 17% for the year, primarily supported by growing technology-related demand linked to the global energy transition. Tin’s gains closely mirrored copper’s, driven mainly by supply disruptions and tightened export policies across major producing regions. Supply-Demand Dynamics Improve; Lithium Carbonate Stabilizes and Rebounds As a core raw material for new-energy vehicle (NEV) batteries and energy storage systems, lithium carbonate entered a pivotal turning point in 2025. After an extended downtrend, its price stabilized and staged a strong rebound during the year, posting a cumulative gain of over 50%. This reversal reflects a genuine improvement in market supply-demand fundamentals. On the demand side, sustained expansion in NEV production and sales, coupled with rapidly accelerating energy storage demand, formed a solid foundation. On the supply side, high-cost, low-efficiency capacity was gradually phased out during the prolonged price slump, leading to a healthier industry supply structure. As an indispensable strategic resource for the global green energy transition, lithium carbonate’s price floor and market attention have both received strong support. Persistent Oversupply Weighs Heavily; Crude Oil Mired in Price Slump In 2025, international crude oil prices trended weakly throughout the year—WTI crude fell more than 15%—pressured by slowing global economic growth and robust output from non-OPEC+ producers. Looking ahead to 2026, markets broadly expect the oversupply situation to persist. Authoritative institutions such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast a substantial supply surplus next year; even the typically more optimistic OPEC Secretariat anticipates a modest market surplus. Kaynat Chainwala, analyst at Kotak Securities, points out that structural oversupply lies at the heart of the issue. Output growth from non-OPEC countries—including the U.S., Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina—has consistently outpaced uneven global demand recovery. She expects oil prices to fluctuate widely within a $50–$70 per barrel range in the absence of major supply shocks. Against this backdrop, OPEC+ policy decisions have become a critical variable.

OPEC+ Policy Finalized: Production Increase Plan Delayed by Two Months, Below Market Expectations

In July, deepening market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts triggered a shift in sentiment, while concerns over the global economy and energy demand—compounded by U.S. election-related safe-haven flows—exerted downward pressure on crude oil prices. WTI crude declined from $84/barrel to $74/barrel. Against the backdrop of weak global economic and energy demand prospects, OPEC+’s willingness to delay its gradual, modest production increase plan intensified. Two distinct downward price tests in August further reinforced market expectations that OPEC+ would postpone its planned output hikes to counter falling prices. However, by late August, sources indicated that OPEC+ would begin gradually raising oil output in October: first, because Libya’s production and exports had plummeted sharply in late August due to ‘force majeure’; second, because oil-producing countries including Iraq pledged to compensate for prior overproduction through additional cuts. Market reports stated that Iraq plans to reduce its oil output to between 3.85 million and 3.90 million barrels per day (bpd) in September—a part of its commitment to offset earlier overproduction relative to its OPEC+ quota. Data show Iraq’s July output stood at approximately 4.25 million bpd, clearly exceeding its agreed target of 4.0 million bpd. At the beginning of September, expectations for an OPEC+ production policy adjustment reversed again: three sources reported that OPEC+ was once again discussing the possibility of delaying its production increase plan. Reasons included reports that Libyan factions were ‘close’ to reaching an agreement—potentially returning 500,000–600,000 bpd of previously lost output to the market—and mounting macroeconomic pressures combined with rising Libyan restart expectations, which triggered a technical breakdown in oil prices: WTI breached the key $70/barrel support level, while Brent hit a fresh low not seen since Q3 last year. Gradual Production Increase Plan Delayed by Two Months—Support Below Market Expectations On September 5, 2024, Saudi Arabia, a European country, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman held a video conference. During the meeting, these eight member countries reaffirmed their collective determination to ensure full compliance with voluntary production adjustments. In recognition of this firm resolve and renewed commitment, the eight members agreed to extend their voluntary additional output cut of 2.2 million bpd by two months—to the end of November 2024. Thereafter, according to the attached schedule, these cuts will be phased out monthly starting December 1, 2024 (i.e., gradual, modest production increases), with flexibility to pause or reverse adjustments if necessary. Countries with production overruns also reiterated their commitment to fully offset all excess output by September 2025. OPEC+’s originally scheduled plan to phase out its 2.2-million-bpd voluntary additional output cut (i.e., the gradual, modest production increase plan) was delayed by two months. Though widely viewed by the market as a bullish catalyst, the resulting support for oil prices proved slightly weaker than expected—even when combined with the positive news of declining U.S. crude inventories, oil prices failed to stage a meaningful rebound.

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