What is OPEC's latest forecast for global oil demand in 2030 and 2050, and what key conclusion does it draw about peak demand?

OPEC forecasts global oil demand will rise to 113.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2030 from 105.1 million bpd in 2025, and further increase to 124 million bpd by 2050 — up from 122.9 million bpd in last year’s report. Crucially, OPEC reiterates there is 'no peak demand on the horizon', directly contrasting with the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) November 2025 projection that oil demand will peak by 2029 and reach only 113 million bpd by mid-century.

According to OPEC’s 2026 World Oil Outlook, what policy and regional factors does it cite to justify its upward revision of long-term oil demand?

OPEC attributes its revised long-term oil demand outlook to a global shift toward more supportive policies for oil use, driven by heightened focus on 'energy security and energy affordability', which has led to 'policy adjustments and reversals' across the U.S., Europe, and elsewhere. It specifically cites slower-than-expected electric vehicle adoption in Europe and U.S. policy changes under President Donald Trump — including reduced support for renewables, EVs, and fuel efficiency standards — as evidence of this trend. Additionally, OPEC highlights long-term demand growth in India, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, while noting that China’s progress in shifting to renewables, though 'impressive', does not offset broader global oil demand expansion.

OPEC sticks to robust oil demand outlook, sees no peak to 2050

Jun 18, 2026

OPEC maintained its forecast for robust global oil demand growth through 2030 and 2050, citing policy shifts towards energy security and affordability. The organization expects no demand peak on the horizon despite renewable progress.

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