Why is Venezuela's potential exit from OPEC symbolically and strategically significant, despite its minimal current oil output?

Venezuela's potential exit is symbolically significant because it is a founding member of OPEC—'the country that played the biggest role among the five nations that created OPEC back in 1960' due to the diplomatic efforts of its oil minister Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo—and its departure would deliver 'a big hit to OPEC' in terms of prestige and historical legitimacy; strategically, while its current output is negligible (exempt from OPEC quotas due to sanctions and economic collapse), its vast reserves 'could be unleashed in the coming decades with the help of America’s supermajors,' and combined with the UAE’s recent withdrawal, the two exits would remove 'more than 5 million barrels-a-day of OPEC’s output capacity, or about 17% of the amount held by core members at the beginning of the year.'

What broader implications does Venezuela’s deliberation to leave OPEC have for the organization’s cohesion, influence, and global oil market stability?

Venezuela’s deliberation—coming shortly after the UAE’s withdrawal and amid 'signs of discontent from fellow member Iraq'—spurs doubts over whether the Saudi Arabia-led group 'can continue to hold together and influence oil prices,' threatening 'the very cohesion and credibility of OPEC'; a further fragmentation would deprive oil markets of 'a global supply manager that steps in when surpluses emerge,' increasing price volatility and exposure to shocks, and raising the risk of intra-OPEC competition and even a 'destructive price war' reminiscent of early 2020—'another sign of the group’s influence on the oil market waning.'

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Venezuela considers exiting OPEC following the UAE, threatening the group's cohesion and potentially increasing global oil price volatility amid shifting geopolitical dynamics. Analysts warn fragmentation could undermine OPEC's ability to manage supply effectively.

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