Among the Orion 9820, Kirin 980, and Snapdragon 855, which will be the sales champion over its product lifecycle?

Last year, many people already calculated and compared the sales volumes of the Kirin 970 and Snapdragon 845. Most concluded that the Kirin 970 outsold the Snapdragon 845—and the data supporting this is quite credible. In short, the 'head effect' has grown increasingly pronounced: by simply estimating the shipment volumes of smartphones powered by the Snapdragon 845 and Kirin 970 among the world’s top ten smartphone manufacturers, the conclusion becomes obvious. Moreover, many netizens speculated that, if this trend continues, Qualcomm might discontinue its high-end chips altogether—since developing premium chips is extremely costly, and without high sales volume to amortize those R&D expenses, such efforts would become unsustainable. This reasoning strikes me as quite plausible. If Zhihu users can make such calculations, then major smartphone OEMs certainly can too. Thus, I suspect that this year VIVO launched the cost-effective iQOO smartphone featuring the Snapdragon 855, and OPPO will soon release an 855-powered version of its RENO series. Though pricing hasn’t been announced yet, it likely won’t be expensive—partly for the reasons outlined above. After all, leveraging their own extensive distribution channels can significantly boost sales of Snapdragon 855–powered devices. If Qualcomm truly abandons high-end chip development, OEMs will find it exceedingly difficult to position their smartphones as premium offerings. While VIVO and OPPO currently don’t rely on Qualcomm’s flagship chips for profitability, their substantial R&D investments over the past two years clearly signal ambitions in the high-end smartphone segment—where brand image enhancement and higher margins are both significant advantages. Now let’s estimate sales volumes: Kirin 980: The Mate 20 series achieved over 10 million units shipped globally in just 4.5 months; its full lifecycle is projected at over 20 million units. The P30 series’ pre-orders far surpassed those of the P20 series at the same stage; the P20 series sold over 18 million units globally within one year of launch. Thus, barring any major missteps, the P30 series should exceed 25 million units—and even conservatively, we can expect no less than 20 million. As for the Honor V20, Honor 20, Honor Note 20, Honor Magic 2, and new Nova series—all Kirin 980–powered—their combined volume is harder to predict, but I believe reaching 20 million units is realistic. Conservatively, total Kirin 980 shipments could surpass 60 million units. Snapdragon 855: Its primary deployment is in Samsung’s S10 series—but Samsung uses the 855 only in China and the U.S. Although S10 sales in China improved, available data suggests they likely didn’t exceed Mi 9’s sales volume. No official figures exist for the U.S. market; assuming combined S10 and Note10 shipments reach 6 million in China and 20 million in the U.S., that totals 26 million. Due to competition from iQOO, Mi 9’s sales may fall short of Mi 8’s; assuming Mi 9 and iQOO each sell around 5 million units (totaling ~10 million), this reflects both market cannibalization and overall category expansion. The RENO 855 edition may sell ~4 million units; other OPPO/VIVO models like FIND and NEX with the 855 could add another ~4 million. Meizu, OnePlus, ZTE, Lenovo, and others combined may contribute ~3 million units. Summing up: 26 + 10 + 4 + 4 + 3 = ~47 million units. All these figures are my estimates: Kirin 980, even conservatively, should exceed 60 million units; Snapdragon 855, even optimistically, is unlikely to surpass 50 million.

The king of self-balancing scooters has moved into shared e-bike services.

When high-end electric vehicles adopt in-wheel motors, they achieve a technological height internal combustion engine vehicles simply cannot aspire to. In fact, thanks to precise control capabilities, autonomous driving technology for EVs is significantly cheaper to implement than for ICE vehicles. From a technical roadmap perspective, EV technology delivers a 'dimensional downgrade'—a decisive, overwhelming advantage—over traditional fuel-powered vehicles. Can you imagine a gasoline-powered self-balancing scooter? There is only one true king of the electric self-balancing scooter market: Segway-Ninebot (hereinafter 'Ninebot'). I. A Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (BUAA) Alumni Success Story The world’s first self-balancing scooter was produced by Segway Inc. In 2002, Segway’s scooters began selling on Amazon and quickly gained global popularity—especially during the 2008 Beijing Olympics, where over 100 Segway units were deployed for event services, capturing widespread attention. However, those early scooters were prohibitively expensive—priced at roughly ¥80,000 (RMB). In 2012, several BUAA alumni identified this opportunity and founded Ninebot. In 2014, the company joined Xiaomi’s ecosystem and secured investments from Xiaomi, Sequoia Capital China, and Shunwei Capital. At that point, Ninebot slashed the price of self-balancing scooters from ¥80,000 down to ¥1,999. Suddenly, self-balancing scooters became accessible to ordinary consumers. For Segway, the sky fell. In 2015, Ninebot acquired Segway. Segway’s fate had been turbulent: in 2009, it was acquired by British entrepreneur Jimi Heselden—who tragically died in 2010 while riding a Segway, losing control when swerving to avoid a dog and plunging off a cliff. Such safety concerns fundamentally capped the self-balancing scooter market: globally, these devices struggle to obtain road-legal certification. Their use remains largely confined to limited scenarios—residential community recreation, security patrols, and similar controlled environments. Under these constraints, companies inevitably hit a ceiling on growth potential. To break through and diversify, Ninebot pivoted into the e-bike sector—even reviving the Segway brand for premium e-bikes. Yet, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued its 'Notification on National Special Supervisory Sampling Results for Electric Bicycle Product Quality (First Half of 2024)', listing 21 non-compliant manufacturers. Among them: Ninebot’s Orion electric bicycle model TDR005Z ('Orion 5Z') was flagged for quality non-conformities. II. A Stellar Semi-Annual Report Data Source: Tonghuashun iFind In the first half of 2024, the company’s revenue reached ¥6.666 billion, a 52.20% increase year-on-year. Net profit attributable to shareholders amounted to ¥596 million, surging 167.82% year-on-year. According to the semi-annual report, four key factors drove this growth: 1. Product Portfolio Expansion: The company actively broadened its offerings, launching multiple new products—including electric self-balancing scooters, electric kick scooters, electric two-wheelers, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), service robots, and e-bikes—to meet diverse application scenarios and user needs. 2. Sustained R&D Investment: The company consistently increased R&D spending to foster technological innovation, enhancing product intelligence and user experience. 3. Strengthened Brand Value: The company intensified brand-building initiatives, ramping up marketing and advertising expenditures to amplify brand visibility and influence. 4. Global Expansion: The company pursued comprehensive globalization—covering both online and offline channels—and actively expanded into overseas markets.

Orion S.A. Cost of Goods Sold Financial Data Published

6 days ago

Orion Engineered Carbons SA has made Cost of Goods Sold financial data available for its Hamburg Stock Exchange listing. The report includes period values and percentage changes sourced from ICE Data Services and FactSet.

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