The Global Oil Refining and Petroleum Trade Landscape in 2030

The world’s oil refining industry will experience significant regional divergence by 2030. In its 2024 edition of the 'Oil' report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) provides a detailed, region-by-region analysis of global refining trends from the present through 2030. (1) Refining industries across the Americas face substantial challenges. In the coming years, the U.S. refining sector will confront major headwinds. Although refining margins have recently been strong, weakening domestic demand and shrinking nearby export markets will pressure U.S. refinery utilization rates—potentially triggering further rationalization and restructuring to preserve competitiveness. U.S. refining throughput is projected to decline by nearly 1 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030. Partly, this reflects announced closures totaling nearly 400,000 bpd of refining capacity; however, the primary driver is the need to further lower refinery utilization to align with a projected 1.4-million-bpd decline in U.S. petroleum product demand. In California, Phillips 66 has ceased operations at its 128,000-bpd crude processing facility in Rodeo and is converting the site into a biofuels facility. Meanwhile, Lyondell’s Houston refinery in Texas will shut down its 263,000-bpd refining operations in 2025. By the end of this decade, an additional 500,000 bpd of U.S. refining capacity remains at risk. Over the past decade, Mexico’s refining system has operated well below average utilization levels due to aging infrastructure. However, it is poised for growth in the near term. State-owned Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) is investing in upgrading and expanding several refineries. As these investments bear fruit, Mexico’s refinery utilization rate is expected to rise by 11.5 percentage points, reaching 63% by 2030. In early 2024, Mexican refinery throughput hit its highest level in eight years—potentially exceeding forecasts by 400,000 bpd—thereby reducing net imports of petroleum products. Pemex is also set to finally complete the long-anticipated and severely delayed Dos Bocas refinery port complex, with a planned capacity of 340,000 bpd. Despite persistent commissioning delays, intermittent reports suggest imminent startup. The refinery is expected to begin operations before the end of Q4 2025, though full-scale commercial operation may take several more years. Once operational, it will substantially reduce Mexico’s dependence on U.S. fuel imports. In Latin America overall, refining capacity will grow by 130,000 bpd—driven solely by Brazil—roughly matching the region’s projected demand growth of about 100,000 bpd. However…

The Hacienda Hedge: Mexico’s Alternative Narrative in the Global Oil Market

As one of Latin America’s earliest oil-producing nations—and currently its second-largest producer—Mexico presents a stark contrast to Brazil, discussed in our previous article. Mexico’s oil sector epitomizes extreme concentration: state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) dominates the entire industry. In recent years, the Mexican government has persistently attempted energy and oil-sector reforms, yet with minimal success. Oil production has continued declining, and in 2022, Mexico became a net oil importer for the first time since the mid-1970s. In international oil markets, a longstanding, somewhat mysterious narrative persists: that the Mexican government itself directly engages in futures hedging in global oil markets—and does so exceptionally well. After briefly outlining Mexico’s oil industry fundamentals and summarizing key media reports on Mexico’s oil futures hedging activities, this article primarily translates and organizes Javier Blas’s Bloomberg article chronicling the history of Mexico’s government-led oil futures hedging program. This piece details what has been dubbed ‘Wall Street’s best-kept secret’—a sophisticated, market-oriented trading operation operating behind the scenes of an otherwise highly rigid and monopolistic national oil industry. It reveals another dimension of Mexico’s oil sector and deepens our understanding of the complexity and enigma inherent in global oil markets. Mexico Has Become a Net Oil Importer According to the UK-based Energy Institute’s 2023 edition of the 'World Energy Statistics Review', Mexico’s oil production stood at 1.944 million bpd in 2022, while domestic oil consumption reached 2.098 million bpd. For the first time since the mid-1970s, consumption exceeded production—making Mexico a net oil importer. Mexico ranks among Latin America’s earliest oil developers. In the early 1920s, it was the world’s second-largest oil producer after the United States. On March 18, 1937, President Lázaro Cárdenas nationalized the oil industry, establishing Pemex to assume full control over domestic upstream, refining, petrochemicals, and retail operations—making Mexico the first country in oil history to fully nationalize its hydrocarbon resources and operate them independently. Pemex grew into the world’s seventh-largest oil company. Nationalization dramatically boosted government revenues, and coupled with broader economic reforms, fueled over three decades of sustained rapid growth—later termed the 'Mexican Miracle'. From the early 1990s through 200…

Pemex Reports Oil Sheen at Texas Refinery

May 7, 2026

Pemex confirmed an oil sheen in the Houston Ship Channel linked to its Deer Park refinery operations. The company stated the spill has been contained and is mitigating environmental impacts.

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Pemex Reports Oil Sheen at Texas Refinery

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Pemex Reports Oil Sheen at Texas Refinery

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