Why did the Chinese and U.S. defense ministers 'only shake hands but not hold talks'?

In addition to the Chinese and U.S. defense ministers, heads of government or senior defense officials from Australia, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, South Korea, Cambodia, Timor-Leste, Fiji, the European Union, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Sweden, Estonia, and Singapore also attended this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue and delivered speeches. A striking impression was the widespread recognition of the brutality and destructiveness of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, prompting participants to unanimously emphasize the preciousness of peace and the importance of resolving disputes through dialogue. Meanwhile, participants also shared their perspectives on regional dynamics and hotspot issues from viewpoints beyond the U.S.-China relationship. The vast majority of speeches referenced U.S.-China competition and stressed the importance of maintaining peace between the two countries—but this was far from the whole picture. Unlike the United States’ high-profile emphasis on its alliance system and Indo-Pacific strategy architecture, representatives from countries including Australia, Japan, and other regional states articulated their views more from the standpoint of their own national interests and security concerns. On one hand, we must acknowledge that the U.S. alliance system in the Asia-Pacific is indeed strengthening; on the other, we must also recognize that regional countries’ strategic and policy autonomy is simultaneously rising. On June 2, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese delivered the keynote speech at the banquet. Though he occasionally directed remarks toward China, his overall tone was relatively moderate—a marked departure from Australia’s previous statements. He also called on the United States and China to ease tensions, noting that consequences arising from conflict—whether in the Taiwan Strait or elsewhere—would affect not only the two major powers or other parties drawn into hostilities, but global security as a whole. “Assuming conflict is inevitable in the Asia-Pacific is a ‘dangerous fallacy,’ and the notion that war is unavoidable is a ‘harmful assumption.’” As a member of the Asia-Pacific region, Australia urged all relevant countries to make every effort to jointly erect ‘guardrails’ against escalating tensions. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, speaking on the afternoon of June 4, likewise underscored the significance of maintaining constructive relations with China. At the third plenary session on June 3—titled ‘De-escalating Rising Tensions’—Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto unveiled a peace initiative regarding the Ukraine issue, calling on Shangri-La Dialogue participants to draft a joint statement urging Russia and Ukraine to halt hostilities immediately and commence peace negotiations. Specifically, the proposal included: an immediate ceasefire in place; mutual withdrawal of forces by 15 kilometers from frontlines; establishment of a demilitarized zone (DMZ); deployment of United Nations monitoring and observation teams within the DMZ; and UN-facilitated referendums in contested areas to objectively ascertain the will of local populations. He urged participants not to assign blame to either side in the conflict. "For the safety of our world—and for the safety of innocent lives—we must halt hostilities as soon as possible." He further stated that compromise is not merely an Asian tradition, but historically the ‘only path’ through which diverse communities and societies have achieved prosperity. Countries must overcome geopolitical antagonism, resolve territorial disputes, and seek win-win solutions through dialogue and consultation. Although Western media and analysts responded to Prabowo’s speech with widespread skepticism and even derision, his views reflect those of Asia—and indeed the world’s—‘silent majority,’ standing in stark contrast to Western value judgments and proposed solutions.

A New Chapter in China’s Head-of-State Diplomacy in 2024

Xu Bu stated that the China-Russia relationship constitutes a vital major-power relationship—and an important neighborly relationship. Having withstood multiple tests, it continues to maintain sound momentum, deepening the China-Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination for a New Era and consistently demonstrating new heights and achievements in bilateral cooperation. Currently, the China-Russia relationship operates within a new environment and context, and cooperation across all domains will continue advancing steadily. Strategic guidance provided by head-of-state diplomacy serves as a powerful engine propelling the steady progress of the China-Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination for a New Era. Xu Bu believes that interactions among major powers—particularly between China-Russia and China-U.S.—affect not only bilateral ties but also the overall stability of the international landscape. For many years, China has consistently dedicated itself to promoting world peace and development. President Xi Jinping’s proposals—the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative—align with the trends of our times and resonate with the broad aspirations of peoples worldwide. A ‘wave’ of neighboring diplomacy continues unabated. Since April, China has welcomed a wave of high-level visits from Southeast Asian countries. Among them are Indonesia’s president-elect Prabowo Subianto, Laos’ Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Saleumxay Kommasith, Vietnam’s Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son, Timor-Leste’s Foreign Minister Adaljiza Magno, and Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Wang Ruijie. On April 1, President Xi Jinping met with Indonesia’s president-elect Prabowo Subianto at the Great Hall of the People. This visit broke precedent: Prabowo arrived in Beijing just over ten days after winning Indonesia’s presidential election. Over the past decade, under the leadership of President Xi and Indonesian President Joko Widodo, China-Indonesia relations have advanced rapidly across all fronts. Cooperation in various fields has yielded rich results, with the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway—now officially operational—serving as a ‘golden hallmark’ of high-quality China-Indonesia collaboration. Moreover, China has been Indonesia’s largest trading partner for ten consecutive years. According to China’s General Administration of Customs, bilateral trade between China and Indonesia stood at USD 63.586 billion in 2014; by 2022, this figure had grown to USD 149.09 billion. During his meeting with Prabowo, President Xi stated: "China views China-Indonesia relations from a strategic and long-term perspective, and stands ready to deepen all-round strategic cooperation with Indonesia, building a China-Indonesia community with a shared future possessing regional and global influence—bringing greater benefits to our two peoples and making positive contributions to regional and global peace, stability, and prosperity." Xu Bu believes China places great importance on diplomacy with neighboring countries, consistently positioning them at the top of its diplomatic agenda. At the 2013 Conference on Diplomacy with Neighboring Countries, President Xi proposed the neighborhood diplomacy principles of amity, sincerity, mutual benefit, and inclusiveness; in 2019, he put forward the vision of building an open, inclusive, innovative, interconnected, and mutually beneficial Asia-Pacific community with a shared future. These concepts serve as fundamental guidelines and directional beacons for China’s relations with neighboring countries. Notably, ASEAN remains China’s top priority in neighborhood diplomacy, and the Chinese government has always attached great importance to developing high-quality, pragmatic cooperation with ASEAN. Xu Bu formerly served as China’s Ambassador to ASEAN, directly witnessing the ‘mutual embrace’ between China and ASEAN, as comprehensive cooperation continuously reaches new heights. China has been ASEAN’s largest trading partner since 2009. In 2020, despite pandemic-related disruptions, ASEAN became China’s largest trading partner for the first time—and has retained that position ever since. The two sides have now been each other’s largest trading partners for four consecutive years.

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