Morning Market Snapshot: November 9, 2026

Export restrictions lifted—self-discipline floor prices abolished—and new export quotas implemented; however, overseas price volatility and geopolitical tensions continue to constrain export elasticity. Industry association meetings signaled positive guidance toward price stabilization, inventory reduction, and orderly exports, reinforcing expectations of cost-based price support. Core Logic: 1. Year-on-year supply remains ample, with daily output hovering around 213,000 tons—a high level. Limited impact from partial plant maintenance, coupled with relatively strong coal prices, provides robust cost support. Enterprise inventories remain above year-ago levels, yet concentrated pre-shipment export orders at ports offer a bottoming buffer for prices. 2. Demand-wise, agricultural fertilizer application is gradually ramping up: North China wheat base-fertilizer application and autumn sowing preparations have commenced; industrial demand—such as compound fertilizer production—shows modest recovery from low operating rates, with raw material procurement remaining largely just-in-time and need-driven. Other industrial uses—including melamine and denitrification—remain stable. Market Outlook: The upcoming Indian tender awaits confirmation. With domestic agricultural demand picking up, attention turns to overall spot price resilience. The urea market’s supply-demand balance shows no clear near-term shift; key watchpoints include the pace of export quota implementation and actual shipment execution. Overall, the market awaits a bottoming-out and subsequent rebound. Edible Oils Core Logic: 1. Falling crude oil prices weigh on edible oil markets, while CBOT soybeans continue weakening under abundant harvest pressure—offering little cost support for soybean oil. Mysteel data show soybean oil inventories remain elevated, and high anticipated oil mill operating rates suggest continued supply宽松 (looseness), limiting upward price momentum. 2. SPPOMA data indicate a 0.84% month-on-month decline in Malaysian palm oil production in October; ITS shipping inspection data show a 45.4% MoM increase in Malaysian palm oil exports. Tomorrow’s MPOB monthly report is expected to reveal palm oil stocks building to 3.75 million tons. Indonesia lowered its reference price for crude palm oil in November, reducing export costs; combined with high origin inventories, palm oil prices face downward pressure. 3. Mysteel surveys indicate persistently low oil mill operating rates due to rapeseed supply chain gaps, resulting in sluggish market uptake and temporarily tight conditions supporting firm basis levels. However, with substantial imported rapeseed arrivals expected soon, rapeseed oil supply is projected to shift from tight balance to surplus—exerting downward pressure on longer-dated rapeseed oil prices. Market Outlook: Edible oil prices trend weak. Soybean Meal Core Logic: CBOT soybeans continue weakening amid abundant harvest pressure, dragging down soybean meal prices. Mysteel data show soybean meal inventories accumulating to 1.3 million tons; some processors face urgent delivery demands or even warehouse overflows forcing temporary shutdowns. Oil mill operating rates are expected to remain high, and weekly state-reserve auctions of 500,000 tons of imported soybeans further intensify supply pressure. Feed producers procure on a just-in-time basis, with weak terminal buying enthusiasm and persistently low basis levels—all weighing on soybean meal prices. Market Outlook: Range-bound with bearish bias. Hogs Key Information: On November 6, 2026, the national average ex-farm price for crossbred hogs (Duroc × Landrace × Yorkshire) stood at RMB 8.60/kg, down RMB 0.11/kg from the previous day. Core Logic: 1. As of end-Q3 2026, breeding sow inventory totaled 36.02 million head—down 4.33 million head (10.7% YoY); the decline widened by 4.2 percentage points versus Q2. This stands at 96.0% of the normal safeguard level of 37.5 million head—supporting hog prices. 2. Hog slaughter volume remains elevated, capping upside potential for prices. 3. Policy support remains favorable for hog prices. Market Outlook: Amid loose supply conditions, hog futures prices trend weak.

How should we view the A-share market performance on November 9, 2026?

Today is Monday, November 9, 2026. The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and rose initially, then oscillated downward above the flat line, closing up 0.32%. Trading volume amounted to RMB 680 billion—significantly lower than the previous trading day. Today, 39% of stocks advanced; investor sentiment was pessimistic, with a pessimism index of *****. The Shenzhen Component Index opened higher but declined after peaking, closing down 0.27%. Trading volume totaled RMB 800 billion—also notably lower than yesterday. Again, 39% of stocks rose; investor sentiment remained pessimistic, with a pessimism index of *****. COSCO Shipping Holdings opened lower, rose to a peak, then oscillated downward, closing down 0.80%. Leveraging China’s formidable industrial manufacturing capacity, COSCO Shipping transports an increasing volume of Chinese industrial finished goods worldwide while importing raw materials back to China. As China’s share of global trade in manufactured goods—and containerization—continues rising, and given COSCO’s domestic monopoly position and improving operational efficiency in container shipping, its business and earnings growth prospects remain solid over the long term. Its high dividend payout ratio makes it one of my preferred stock types. Though earnings are volatile, the company has posted substantial profits annually—characterized by a strong earnings floor and high upside potential. The market currently assigns it a relatively low valuation. Yet even one or two exceptionally strong years could deliver outsized returns. Presently, its valuation reflects low-return assumptions, and its share price is not high. Buying in now allows investors to enjoy both high dividends and gradual net asset value appreciation—while awaiting explosive earnings-driven market rewards. Isn’t that an attractive proposition? Oriental Yuhong opened higher but declined steadily, closing down sharply by 2.10%. As a waterproofing materials manufacturer, Oriental Yuhong accumulated significant bad debt during the real estate downturn. In recent years, its financial management has grown more pragmatic, with systematic write-offs of non-performing and obsolete accounts.

Price Trends: Monday, November 9, 2026

12 hours ago

Crude oil prices collapsed during the week ending Nov. 6, closing at $96.48/bbl. The decline followed diplomatic progress between the US and Iran and US mid-term election results.

chemweek

Price Trends: Monday, November 9, 2026

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