How should we view the A-share market trend on October 26, 2026?

# Market Recap 【Data】 - Turnover: ¥350 billion (yesterday: +¥431 billion); total turnover: ¥1.62 trillion (yesterday: ¥1.97 trillion; high: ¥2.60114 trillion on Oct 26, 2026 / +3.94%; low: ¥1.42 trillion on Sep 29, 2026) - Large-cap inflow/outflow: -¥22.9 billion (yesterday: +¥2.8 billion) - Stocks rising/falling: 2,252 / 4,526 (out of 5,570 listed stocks) - Stocks hitting daily limit up/down: 59 / 27 (yesterday: 84 / 7) - Median return: -0.47% (yesterday: +1.56%); average return: -1.81% (yesterday: +2.6%) 【Subjective Assessment】 Volume contraction and profit-taking. # Cycle Assessment 【Probability of Top Formation】 - Long-term: Transitioning into a bottom-searching phase. - Medium-term: Bottom-searching phase. - Short-term: 10%. 【Probability of Bottom Formation】 - Long-term: 5%. - Medium-term: 55%, still requiring right-side confirmation. - Short-term: Entering a top-searching phase. # Strategy 【Position Sizing】 70% (maintain current holdings) 【Risk Control】 - Domestic equity exposure: 30% (no short position allowed) — upper limit: 70% (current cap); after right-side confirmation, cap may be raised to 80%. - Risk-free fixed-income exposure: 7% — upper limit: 20% (no action taken).

Market snapshot for October 27, 2026 (morning session)

Before macroeconomic clarity emerges, the market is focusing on cost-side strength in the supply-demand tug-of-war for the January futures contract (01). Following the recent upside surprise, attention remains on thermal coal prices. However, one must avoid interpreting the short-term sharp rally as definitive evidence of a trend reversal. At the same time, strong cost support from below remains intact. Prices are expected to fluctuate broadly within a range bounded by calcium carbide production costs (support level) and sentiment-driven resistance (upper bound), with volatility expanding for the 01 contract. Urea Key Information: Export self-discipline floor pricing has been lifted, and new export quotas have been allocated; however, overseas price volatility and geopolitical tensions continue to constrain export elasticity. Industry association meetings signaled positive guidance toward price stabilization, inventory reduction, and orderly exports—strengthening expectations of cost-based price floors. Core Logic: 1. Year-on-year supply remains ample, with daily output hovering around 213,000 tonnes—a high level. Limited impact from partial plant maintenance, coupled with robust coal prices, provides strong cost support. Enterprise inventories remain elevated year-on-year, yet concentrated port loading of pending export orders offers a buffer at the price floor. 2. On the demand side, agricultural fertilizer application is gradually commencing: North China wheat base-fertilizer application and autumn-sowing preparations are underway; industrial demand shows modest recovery—compound fertilizer plant operating rates are slowly rebounding, while raw material procurement remains just-in-time and demand-driven; other industrial uses (e.g., melamine, denitrification) remain stable. Market Outlook: With the upcoming Indian tender awaiting confirmation, domestic agricultural demand expansion will be key to overall spot price resilience. The urea market’s supply-demand structure shows no clear near-term shift; going forward, close monitoring of export quota implementation and actual shipment execution is warranted. Overall, the market awaits a confirmed bottom before recovery begins. Edible Oils Core Logic: 1. Recent CBOT soybean prices have been under pressure due to abundant harvests and rapid harvesting progress. Mysteel data indicates persistently high soybean oil inventories, while elevated oil mill operating rates sustain a loose supply situation—offering little upward impetus for prices. 2. After India’s concentrated palm oil purchases, festive-season stockpiling is nearing completion. ITS shipping inspection data shows Malaysian palm oil exports rose 46.9% MoM during the first 25 days of October; palm oil exports may weaken again thereafter. Coupled with high inventory levels at producing origins, palm oil prices lack upside momentum. 3. With substantial imported rapeseed arrivals forecast for Q4, coastal oil mills’ operating rates will rise, shifting rapeseed oil supply from tight balance toward surplus. Recently, spot rapeseed oil prices in Guangxi and Jiangsu have already softened—price pressure is expected to mount. Market Outlook: Divergent trends across edible oil sub-markets. Soybean Meal Core Logic: CBOT soybean prices remain pressured amid abundant harvests and rapid harvesting progress. Mysteel data shows soybean meal inventories have edged lower but remain at historically high levels year-on-year. Oil mill operating rates are expected to stay elevated, sustaining supply pressure. Feed producers procure on a just-in-time basis, with limited buying enthusiasm; basis levels remain low—further weighing on soybean meal prices. Market Outlook: Weakness with sideways oscillation. Hogs Key Information: On October 26, 2026, the national average ex-farm price for crossbred hogs (Duroc × Landrace × Yorkshire) stood at ¥9.28/kg, down ¥0.06/kg from the previous day. Core Logic: 1. As of end-Q3 2026, the national breeding sow herd stood at 36.02 million head—a YoY decline of 4.33 million head (-10.7%), with the decline widening by 4.2 percentage points versus Q2. This represents 96.0% of the normal safeguard level of 37.5 million head.

Price Trends: Monday, October 26, 2026

9 hours ago

Crude oil prices rebounded 8.7% this week, closing at $126.69 per barrel amid falling US inventories and geopolitical tensions regarding Iran. Reduced transits through the Strait of Hormuz further contributed to the significant market surge.

chemweek

Price Trends: Monday, October 26, 2026

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