Oil prices, gas prices, and freight rates are all rising—has the global energy market entered a new phase of heightened tension?

However, the ING team remains relatively optimistic and maintains its baseline forecast of $80 per barrel for Brent crude oil in the final quarter of the year. 'With substantial volumes of oil still transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the situation remains highly dynamic,' wrote Warren Patterson and Ava Mante. Meanwhile, on Sunday (September 13), President Trump stated that the U.S. could remain in Iran and 'continue extracting oil.' According to Reuters’ report quoting the U.S. president: 'We will ultimately leave Iran—unless we decide to stay and keep extracting oil, just as we did in Venezuela.' He noted that revenues generated so far from selling Venezuelan oil 'have already paid for the war several times over.' Trump also claimed that gasoline prices would 'plummet like a stone' once the war with Iran ends. Yet prospects for peace remain bleak—the latest development is the cancellation of today’s Oman-hosted meeting. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices in Asia and Europe have hit their highest levels since 2022. As international oil prices surged past $100 per barrel once again, global natural gas prices also spiked sharply—triggered by Qatar’s declaration of force majeure on LNG exports, now extended through late November 2026. Industry experts Irina Slav and Michael Kern published analyses on the latest developments in the global natural gas market on the website OilPrice.com on September 3 and September 8, 2026, respectively. (1) Asian LNG prices surge to their highest level since 2022 On September 2, 2026, amid renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities, spot LNG prices for Asian buyers briefly climbed to nearly $26 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), marking a weekly increase of 5%. According to Bloomberg’s report citing anonymous traders, Asian spot LNG prices stood at $25.908/MMBtu on the evening of Wednesday, September 2. Earlier, President Trump had stated: 'We have dismantled all new equipment they were attempting to install in the Strait of Hormuz—some defensive, some offensive… Last night’s strike was extremely intense, and we stand ready to launch similar operations again at any time.' Over the past weekend, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz still obstructed, QatarEnergy—the state-owned Qatari company—extended its force majeure on LNG deliveries until November, pushing up LNG prices across both Asia and Europe. Asian market prices are being driven primarily by buyers from South Asia—including Pakistan and Bangladesh—who are seeking spot supplies to replace long-term Qatari deliveries currently unable to exit the Persian Gulf. Tender documents reviewed by Bloomberg show that utilities in South Korea, India, Taiwan, and Bangladesh are considering purchasing spot cargoes for October and November. Conversely, Pakistan earlier this week rejected a LNG offer from BP priced above $27/MMBtu, deeming it excessively high, according to the country’s state-owned natural gas trading company. Recent developments across the Middle East indicate no imminent resumption of normal LNG exports from the Persian Gulf. Given seasonal increases in gas demand, LNG prices are likely to rise further—potentially forcing some buyers out of the market.

Qatar’s production halt plus the Strait of Hormuz blockade—will this round of natural gas crisis be more severe than the 2022 crisis?

A sudden halt to Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) production and near-total paralysis of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have delivered an unprecedented dual shock to the global energy market. The Asian LNG price benchmark JKM surged over 50% in a single day, while European natural gas prices rose in tandem—sparking sharp concerns among market participants about whether this crisis could replicate the 2022 Russia–Ukraine energy shock. As previously reported by WallStreetCN, following Iranian attacks on Qatar’s core Ras Laffan production facilities, QatarEnergy officially suspended LNG production. Simultaneously, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was severely disrupted, affecting shipments of crude oil, refined products, and LNG alike. JKM prices promptly climbed to approximately $16–$17/MMBtu. According to Wind Trading Desk, Morgan Stanley’s Devin McDermott team released a report on March 2 indicating that this price surge aligns with market expectations of a brief 1–2-week disruption; current levels are slightly above the peak recorded during the 'Twelve-Day War' in June 2025. In terms of supply loss volume, the potential scale of this shock may exceed that of 2022. As calculated by the Financial Times, Russia’s reduction of gas supplies to Europe in 2022 amounted to roughly 80 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year, whereas the combined impact of the actual Strait of Hormuz blockade and the shutdown of two Israeli gas fields creates a potential shortfall of around 120 bcm per year. However, price levels remain far below those seen in 2022—Europe’s benchmark natural gas price recently hovered around €48 per megawatt-hour (MWh), compared to a 2022 peak exceeding €343/MWh. Duration will be the decisive variable determining the ultimate severity of this crisis. Natasha Fielding, analyst at Argus Media, stated: 'If the disruption drags on, its impact could match that of 2022—but if it lasts only about a week, it simply cannot be compared to that historic turning point.' Qatar: A sudden halt to 20% of global LNG supply Qatar is the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, shipping approximately 80 million tons annually—roughly 20% of global supply—and primarily serving Asian markets. Following the attack on Ras Laffan, its entire LNG production line ground to a halt. Qatar’s natural gas exports rely almost entirely on LNG shipments; pipeline exports account for a negligible share. While Oman—the only other Arab Peninsula nation with LNG export infrastructure—operates loading terminals on the opposite side of the Strait of Hormuz, vessels can still depart normally even if Gulf transit remains blocked. Although LNG accounts for only 7–8% of total global natural gas supply, it serves as a critical marginal source for many countries—and exerts a disproportionately strong influence on pricing. Andreas Schroeder, Head of Energy Analysis at ICIS Commodity Research Group, remarked: 'Any event impacting the global LNG market tends to steer natural gas prices in both European and Asian markets.' Strait of Hormuz: The chokepoint for 20% of global LNG flows Citing Vortexa data, Morgan Stanley estimates that roughly 20% of global LNG flows pass through the Strait of Hormuz—of which approximately 70% head to Asia and about 10% to Europe.

QatarEnergy Delays LNG Deliveries to Edison Until December

Sep 28, 2026

QatarEnergy suspended LNG deliveries to Italian utility Edison since April due to war-related force majeure, with resumption expected in December. The disruption reduces global LNG exports as Europe rushes to fill winter gas storages.

reuters

2026-01-27

QatarEnergy and Air Liquide Ink Helium Supply Deal

2026-03-02

QatarEnergy Halts LNG, Associated Output at Ras Laffan, Mesaieed After Drone Attacks

2026-03-04

QatarEnergy declares force majeure after LNG production halt

2026-03-18

QatarEnergy Site Damaged by Strike; Crude Climbs as Other Energy Sites Evacuated

2026-03-20

QatarEnergy Expects 3-5 Years to Repair LNG Facilities After Missile Strikes