Major shareholders are increasingly cashing out at peak stock prices.

Last weekend, seven popular semiconductor stocks jointly announced share reduction plans by their major shareholders, including: Zhongwei Company (planning to reduce shares worth RMB 6 billion), Longchip Technology (RMB 3.324 billion), Aisitai Technology (RMB 1.453 billion—Alibaba’s reduction), Changxin Bochuang (RMB 961 million), Guangliwei (RMB 376 million), Canqin Technology (RMB 383 million), and Jingsheng Co., Ltd. (RMB 185 million). Two days earlier, from May 14–15, over ten listed companies—including Ningshui Group, Weiye Shares, Sinyuan Electric, Orbbec, Shengke Communications, and Tonghuashun—also disclosed share reduction plans by their shareholders. It’s not only individual shareholders reducing holdings—state-backed funds are also selling shares. For example, the China Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Phase I—established in 2014 to support technological development—has already reduced stakes in several companies: Toppan Techno (RMB 3.018 billion), VeriSilicon (RMB 1.739 billion), Shanghai Silicon Industry (RMB 1.259 billion), and Guochi Technology (RMB 130 million), totaling approximately RMB 6.146 billion. Many more reductions are still pending. Likewise, the Phase II fund—established in 2019—has already reduced stakes in Biwin Storage (RMB 1.646 billion) and HuiZhi Micro (approximately RMB 33 million), totaling about RMB 1.679 billion; numerous additional reductions remain in the pipeline. As those most familiar with a company’s fundamentals, major shareholders possess superior insight into its profitability and hidden risks. Thus, their share reductions typically trigger market panic: — Either they believe the current stock price is excessively inflated—far exceeding the company’s intrinsic value—and therefore opportunistically cash out at the peak; — Or they foresee weak future growth or even underlying problems, prompting them to exit early and mitigate risk. Empirical data corroborates this: within one to two weeks after a reduction announcement, stock prices on average fall 2%–5%. If the reduction amounts to a full liquidation of holdings, the average stock price decline within six months can reach 25%–35%.

15x: The 'rampage' and 'emergency brake' of the speculative stock Shangwei New Materials

Zhiyuan Robotics’ official statement clarifying it would “not pursue a backdoor listing” cast a veil of uncertainty over this capital frenzy. Following the acquisition announcement, Zhiyuan Robotics explicitly stated through media channels that the acquisition was not intended for a backdoor listing and that it had “no definitive plan to make significant changes or adjustments to the listed company’s core business within the next 12 months.” This declaration echoes Shangwei New Materials’ own disclosure stating that the acquirer “has no plan for asset restructuring within the next 12 months,” effectively dashing market expectations of near-term asset injections. Moreover, the funding source behind this RMB 2.1-billion controlling stake acquisition reveals underlying financial pressure. According to disclosures, acquisition funds primarily come from Zhiyuan Robotics’ legally owned funds and self-raised capital—with the latter expected to be secured via bank merger-and-acquisition loans currently under negotiation. However, it bears noting that Zhiyuan Robotics has existed for only two and a half years. Although it has completed 13 financing rounds and achieved a valuation of RMB 15 billion, it remains unprofitable. While its robotics commercialization prospects are promising, the path to monetization is long. This model—leveraged acquisition while still unprofitable—inevitably magnifies liquidity risk: should subsequent performance fall short of expectations, leverage pressure could directly spill over onto the listed company and minority shareholders. Although Zhiyuan Robotics has clearly ruled out a backdoor listing, the market continues speculating about potential “indirect maneuvers,” mainly falling into two categories: First, launching a major asset restructuring after the change of control has been effective for 36 months—thereby qualifying for regulatory exemptions enabling a full listing—but facing risks such as low valuation, stringent regulatory review, and shareholder negotiations; Second, splitting up robotics bodies and core components businesses and injecting them incrementally via “small-scale, step-by-step” transactions to circumvent restrictions and bypass the three-year waiting period. Additionally, the market speculates Zhiyuan may leverage the listed platform to integrate industrial chain resources: resources previously tied to Zhiyuan via “industry-partner equity investment + joint ventures” could, in the future, be acquired by Shangwei New Materials through purchases of the industry partners’ equity stakes—creating a “capital cycle” combining asset consolidation and capital recycling. Yet the realization of these speculative scenarios faces multiple practical hurdles. At the industry level, the embodied intelligence sector remains immature: generalization and universality of embodied large models still require breakthroughs; humanoid robots have only achieved limited deployment in niche verticals; industry leaders like UBTECH and Dato Technology have achieved mass production but remain deeply mired in losses; and numerous startups struggle with algorithm optimization and cost control. Zhiyuan’s end-to-end integrated strategy demands sustained capital input—its RMB 2.1-billion acquisition payment already accounts for 14% of its RMB 15-billion valuation, sharply escalating subsequent R&D and integration funding pressures. From the listed company’s fundamental perspective, Shangwei New Materials faces evident earnings pressure. Per its performance commitment, the company’s new materials business must achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of no less than RMB 60 million and a non-recurring net profit of no less than RMB 80 million in 2025. Yet in the first half of the year, it reported only RMB 29.9004 million in net profit attributable to shareholders and RMB 26.0414 million in non-recurring net profit—meaning it must deliver a year-on-year increase of over 38.35% in non-recurring net profit in the second half to meet its target, a highly challenging feat. Failure to meet targets could trigger compensation obligations from original shareholders—including possible equity buybacks—that would further depress the stock price. More alarmingly, on July 24, the company abruptly waived lock-up commitments for multiple directors and senior executives, lifting the restriction limiting annual share transfers to no more than 25%. This move may weaken the alignment of management interests with those of the listed company, intensifying market concerns over “financial arbitrage.”

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