The U.S. escalates its 'economic strangulation' campaign against Iran, pushing the global energy market to the brink.

According to Kpler data, Iran’s average daily crude oil loading volume has plummeted to approximately 287,000 barrels since August—just one-seventh of its pre-war level of 2 million barrels per day. A major Asian country is Iran’s largest oil buyer, having purchased over 80% of Iran’s seaborne oil exports in 2025, averaging 1.4 million barrels per day. Now, however, that figure has dropped to roughly 534,000 barrels per day in August. It had rebounded slightly to 823,000 barrels per day in July, but deteriorated further in August. Fuel oil exports have also collapsed—from an average of 256,000 barrels per day last year to just 61,000 barrels per day in August—while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports have virtually halted. Kpler data further shows that Iran’s offshore crude oil stockpiled outside sanctioned zones has declined from about 105 million barrels to roughly 80 million barrels. At the current export pace, Iran’s remaining oil supply destined for the Asian market will last only about five months. This tightening of supply has already directly impacted prices: the premium/discount for Iranian Light Crude relative to Brent has swung from a $3.50 discount one week ago to a $3.50 premium—a net shift of $7.00. Following two consecutive weeks of roughly 13% gains, Brent crude retreated to around $92 per barrel on Monday. Tehran plays its Strait of Hormuz card In response to unprecedented U.S. pressure, Iran has adopted a hardline stance. A spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that the U.S. has imposed economic sanctions on Iran for 47 years, and its current rhetoric about an "economic war" is merely psychological warfare; Iran will continue conducting trade with other countries—"right under America’s nose"—bypassing restrictions. Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council went even further, issuing a stark warning: if the U.S. persists with economic warfare, Iran will block all oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz—"no oil will be exported via the Strait of Hormuz or even the broader Persian Gulf region." This strait is the world’s most critical energy transit chokepoint. Shipping traffic there has already visibly contracted: over the past two days, an average of four oil and gas tankers transited the strait—slightly above August’s average of 3.7, but far below July’s average of 6.4. Gulf export flows now stand at only about 1.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared to July’s average of 3.6 million barrels. Meanwhile, other Gulf producers are accelerating efforts to fill the gap—non-Iranian Gulf producers’ loading volumes surged from 3.6 million barrels per day to 10.2 million barrels per day. Yet alternative routes cannot fully compensate for the disruption caused by a blocked Strait—at least not in the short term. Pakistan’s army chief undertakes urgent mediation On the very day U.S.-Iran tensions escalated sharply, Pakistan’s Army Chief General Asim Munir led a delegation on an emergency visit to Tehran.

Current analysis of the Iran situation and its multidimensional impact on investment

Current Analysis of the Iran Situation and Its Multidimensional Impact on Investment I. Core Analysis of the Current Iran Situation (A) Background and Latest Developments The current Iran situation has escalated from localized friction into large-scale military conflict. The key trigger was the joint U.S.-Israeli military strike against Iran on February 28, 2026—codenamed Israel’s "Roaring Lion," the largest air operation ever conducted by the Israeli Air Force. Approximately 30 targets inside Iran were struck, resulting in 201 deaths and 747 injuries—including senior officials such as the Secretary of Iran’s Defense Council and the Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Most critically, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in the attack. Iran has declared a 40-day national mourning period. Iran swiftly launched retaliatory action, launching what it described as its "most intense offensive in history": multiple waves of ballistic missiles and drones targeted Israel and U.S. military bases across the Middle East. The Israeli General Staff Headquarters was struck, and Iran announced a complete ban on maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz. In response, the U.S. deployed two aircraft carrier strike groups and multiple F-22 stealth fighters—the largest U.S. military buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq War. Former President Donald Trump explicitly stated the U.S. would continue bombing Iran to destroy its missile industry, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared the operation’s objective was "to overthrow the Iranian regime." Currently, explosions have occurred in multiple Middle Eastern countries—including the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia—indicating the conflict is spreading. Global geopolitical risk has surged dramatically. (B) Root Causes of the Core Conflict This escalation is no accident. At its heart lie three irreconcilable disagreements—and prior negotiations served merely as cover for U.S.-Israeli military preparations: (1) Nuclear capability: The U.S. demands Iran dismantle its primary nuclear facilities, ship its enriched uranium to the U.S., and accept an open-ended agreement; Iran insists on retaining its right to peaceful nuclear technology and refuses to transfer enriched uranium abroad. (2) Missile program: The U.S. and Israel seek to extend negotiations to include Iran’s ballistic missile program, whereas Iran considers its missile capabilities central to national defense and treats them as an inviolable "red line." (3) Regional influence: Israel demands the dismantling of Iran-led anti-Israel alliances—the so-called "Axis of Resistance"—a demand that strikes at Iran’s core regional survival interests. Fundamentally, the U.S. and Israel use "Iran’s nuclear program" as a pretext—but their real aim is to render Iran defenseless, and ultimately effect regime change. (C) Key Possible Trajectories Going Forward Based on current dynamics, three main scenarios could unfold—each carrying markedly different implications for investment: 1. Continued escalation (high probability): With the Supreme Leader’s death galvanizing domestic unity and hardliners taking charge of retaliation, Iran may intensify its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and launch attacks on all U.S. and Israeli facilities across the Middle East—potentially triggering full-scale regional war across the Gulf. 2. Stalemate phase (moderate probability): After initial strikes, both sides settle into a war of attrition—neither escalating further nor agreeing to a ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz remains partially blocked, sustaining long-term geopolitical risk and causing markets to repeatedly absorb bouts of risk-aversion sentiment. 3. Unexpected de-escalation (low probability): Under international mediation, the parties reach a temporary ceasefire and gradually resume negotiations, leading to the Strait’s reopening and a rapid unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium—returning markets to normal fundamentals. However, given the U.S. and Israel’s explicit goal of "regime change in Iran," this scenario remains highly unlikely.

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