Estimated lithium carbonate production from South American salt lakes in 2026

According to publicly available data, in 2025, China accounted for 28% of global lithium carbonate supply, making it one of the major suppliers; South America and Australia shared the highest supply share at 29% each, collectively contributing nearly 60% of the world’s lithium carbonate resources; Africa’s share remained relatively low at 14%. Overall, global lithium carbonate supply exhibits a multi-regional support structure, with South America and Australia serving as core producing regions alongside China, forming the primary sources of lithium resources. South America is one of the world’s core lithium carbonate production regions, with output heavily dependent on its abundant lithium-rich salt lake resources. This article systematically estimates and analyzes South America’s lithium carbonate production from salt lakes in 2026, drawing upon publicly available industry data and authoritative research reports. I. Lithium Carbonate Production from South American Salt Lakes in 2024 and 2025 Based on my October 2024 article, "Lithium Carbonate Production Estimates for American Salt Lakes: 2024–2025", Chile’s Salar de Atacama remains the core production source, developed jointly by SQM and U.S.-based Albemarle (ALB). Its lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) output is projected at 244,000 tonnes in 2024 and 275,000 tonnes in 2025. ALB also operates the Silver Peak salt lake in the U.S., with an additional annual LCE capacity of 5,000 tonnes. Rio Tinto, the Anglo-Australian mining giant, plans to acquire Arcadium Lithium—a newly formed company—for USD 6.7 billion. Arcadium holds Argentina’s Hombre Muerto and Olaroz salt lakes, with combined LCE output estimated at “23,500 tonnes + 30,000 tonnes” in 2024 and “25,500 tonnes + 42,000 tonnes” in 2025. Rio Tinto’s own Rincon salt lake project in Argentina commenced operations at the end of 2024 and is expected to produce 3,000 tonnes of LCE in 2025. Chinese enterprises are actively expanding their presence in Argentine salt lakes. Ganfeng Lithium’s three projects include Cauchari-Olaroz, forecasted to yield 26,000 tonnes and 40,000 tonnes of LCE in 2024 and 2025 respectively; Mariana, projected at 3,000 tonnes and 10,000 tonnes of LCE for the same years; and PPG, which remains non-operational. Zijin Mining’s 3Q salt lake project is expected to produce 4,000 tonnes and 16,000 tonnes of LCE in 2024 and 2025 respectively; Tsingshan Group’s Centenario-Ratones project is forecasted to produce 6,000 tonnes in 2024 and 24,000 tonnes of LCE in 2025.

How are U.S. automakers competing globally for lithium to counter Tesla and Chinese vehicles?

Except in rare cases, foreign automakers avoid directly acquiring equity stakes in lithium mines and instead negotiate supply agreements to secure fixed volumes of lithium within predetermined price ranges. Through such deals, automakers typically gain priority access, thereby excluding competitors. For instance, Tesla has entered into a cooperation agreement with Piedmont Lithium, headquartered near Charlotte, securing the majority of output from its Quebec mine. Although lithium reserves are abundant globally, extraction is not always straightforward. Many countries with large lithium reserves—including Bolivia, Argentina, and Chile—have nationalized their natural resources or imposed strict foreign exchange controls, restricting foreign investors’ ability to repatriate capital. Even in Canada and the United States, establishing a new mine can take several years. Eric Norris, CEO of Albemarle, stated: “Lithium is hard to obtain—and even harder to refine into battery-grade material—in the U.S.” This explains why automotive executives and consultants are traveling worldwide to inspect mining sites—even though most remain undeveloped. Amanda Hall, CEO of Summit Nanotech, described the situation as “a bit desperate,” noting that auto executives “are scrambling to solve this problem.” Her company focuses on developing technologies to accelerate lithium extraction from lithium-bearing brine groundwater. Automakers are hastily concluding deals with small- and medium-sized mines—but many such agreements may fall short of expectations. Shay Natarajan, Partner at private equity fund Mobility Impact Partners, revealed numerous problematic cases and believes lithium prices will ultimately collapse due to oversupply. Mining companies appear to be the biggest beneficiaries: partnerships with automakers generate substantial profits while simultaneously enhancing credibility—facilitating easier access to debt financing or equity sales. Recently, Rio Tinto—one of the world’s largest mining firms—reached a preliminary agreement with Ford Motor Company, under which Rio Tinto’s Argentine mine will supply lithium to Ford. Marnie Finlayson, Rio Tinto’s Managing Director, noted that Ford was among several automakers expressing interest. Rio Tinto provided Ford with a comprehensive dossier covering mine planning, community engagement strategies, and environmental impact assessments—aiming to “make everyone comfortable.” On climate change, Finlayson remarked: “If we fail to do this, lithium reserves cannot be unlocked, and we cannot jointly address climate change—the defining global challenge.” Until just a few years ago, lithium mining remained unprofitable amid persistently low prices. Yet with rising EV adoption, dozens of lithium mines are now in the pipeline globally—most still in early development stages and requiring several years before production begins. Ana Cabral-Gardner, CEO of Vancouver-based Sigma Lithium—which produces lithium in Brazil—observed that prior to 2021, “either capital was unavailable, or it was extremely short-term”; “no one was looking five or ten years ahead.”

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