What factors enabled Rio Tinto’s aluminum exports from Canada to the US to rebound to pre-tariff levels despite the 50% US tariff?

Rio Tinto’s exports to the US rebounded to about 80% of pre-tariff levels — described by aluminum chief Jérôme Pécresse as having 'progressively come back to the pretariff situation' — due to the competitiveness of its Canadian operations, especially in Quebec, where abundant and cheap hydroelectric power supports low-cost, low-carbon aluminum production; this advantage allowed Rio to maintain strong sales to the US even amid soaring US Midwest premiums and tight North American supply, while geopolitical disruptions (e.g., Iran war–related smelter idlings in the Gulf) further underscored the strategic value of nearby, reliable supply.

Why has Rio Tinto chosen not to build a new aluminum smelter in the US despite Trump’s tariff policy aiming to revive domestic production?

Rio Tinto has no plans to build a US smelter because soaring US electricity costs — driven by massive data center demand that can pay two- to three-times the electricity price required for competitive smelting — make domestic primary aluminum production uneconomical; instead, the company leverages Quebec’s hydropower advantage, recently commissioning its $1.5 billion AP60 smelter expansion there to offset older capacity losses.

Rio Tinto’s Aluminum Exports to US Rebound to Pretariff Levels

May 29, 2026

Rio Tinto reports aluminum shipments to the US have rebounded to pre-tariff levels after shifting volumes to Europe during high levy periods. Soaring US electricity costs deter new domestic smelter construction, favoring Canadian expansion amidst tight global supply.

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