Why is the Indian rupee expected to open weaker on Thursday?

The Indian rupee is expected to open weaker on Thursday—forecast at 95.35–95.40 per dollar—due to a fresh surge in oil prices triggered by escalating Iran–US tensions, including U.S. strikes on Iran and Iran’s threat to shut the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed Brent crude to $95.50 and heightened concerns over constrained energy flows from the Persian Gulf.

What role is the Reserve Bank of India playing in response to rupee volatility?

The Reserve Bank of India appears to be actively supporting the rupee, as evidenced by dollar selling by state-run banks—likely on its behalf—which helped the currency reach a Wednesday high of 95.10; however, traders note that for this support to be meaningful and sustained, it must be reinforced by other factors, especially a moderation in oil prices.

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Rupee braces for weaker start after Iran–US tensions ignite fresh oil rally

Jun 10, 2026

The Indian rupee weakened against the dollar as Iran-US tensions drove Brent crude above $95.50 amid fears of Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Currency traders note sustained stability requires moderated oil prices despite RBI intervention efforts.

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